Open Access

In Maun, Botswana, a self-sufficient, sustainable and future-oriented district will be created, the Maun Science Park. Within this project, several 5-8 storey smart homes shall be built in sustainable construction. The aim of this thesis is to develop a sustainable structural concept for those homes of the Maun Science Park. In a first step, the general basics for tall building structures and sustainable construction were established. Based on those fundamentals, criteria for the structural requirements, the ecological as well as the social sustainability of a structural design could be defined. Subsequently, four structural systems were drafted: a concrete core structure, a steel shear frame structure, a rammed earth shear wall structure and a wooden diagrid structure. In addition to the pre-dimensioning of the systems, a life cycle assessment was set up to evaluate the ecological sustainability of the designs. With the help of a utility value analysis, the wooden diagrid structure was determined as the preferred variant. The comparison of the designs also allows to draw general conclusions for the development of sustainable tall building structures. The results of the life cycle assessment show the advantage of wood as an ecological building material over industrially manufactured building materials, such as steel and concrete. Whereas rammed earth, a likewise ecological building material, is not convincing due to its low strength. In general, a balance is created in the life cycle assessment between ecological and industrially manufactured products in regard of strength and environmental impact. In terms of social sustainability, the design of the structure system can significantly influence the flexibility and use of local resources. However, due to the diversity of sustainable construction, the development of a structural system should be linked to an overarching sustainability concept that takes architecture and stakeholders into account.

The present work proposes the use of modern ICT technologies such as smartphones, NFCs, internet, and web technologies, to help patients in carrying out their therapies. The implemented system provides a calendar with a reminder of the assumptions, ensures the drug identification through NFC, allows remote assistance from healthcare staff and family members to check and manage the therapy in real-time. The system also provides centralized information on the patient's therapeutic situation, helpful in choosing new compatible therapies.

Forecasting is crucial for both system planning and operations in the energy sector. With increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, increasing fluctuations in the power generation need to be taken into account. Probabilistic load forecasting is a young, but emerging research topic focusing on the prediction of future uncertainties. However, the majority of publications so far focus on techniques like quantile regression, ensemble, or scenario-based methods, which generate discrete quantiles or sets of possible load curves. The conditioned probability distribution remains unknown and can only be estimated when the output is post-processed using a statistical method like kernel density estimation. Instead, the proposed probabilistic deep learning model uses a cascade of transformation functions, known as normalizing flow, to model the conditioned density function from a smart meter dataset containing electricity demand information for over 4,000 buildings in Ireland. Since the whole probability density function is tractable, the parameters of the model can be obtained by minimizing the negative loglikelihood through the state of the art gradient descent. This leads to the model with the best representation of the data distribution. Two different deep learning models have been compared, a simple three-layer fully connected neural network and a more advanced convolutional neural network for sequential data processing inspired by the WaveNet architecture. These models have been used to parametrize three different probabilistic models, a simple normal distribution, a Gaussian mixture model, and the normalizing flow model. The prediction horizon is set to one day with a resolution of 30 minutes, hence the models predict 48 conditioned probability distributions. The normalizing flow model outperforms the two other variants for both architectures and proves its ability to capture the complex structures and dependencies causing the variations in the data. Understanding the stochastic nature of the task in such detail makes the methodology applicable for other use cases apart from forecasting. It is shown how it can be used to detect anomalies in the power grid or generate synthetic scenarios for grid planning.

Diese Bachelorarbeit befasst sich mit einem Kooperationsprojekt in Botswana, welches durch Lehrende und Studierende der Hochschule für Technik Wirtschaft und Gestaltung in Konstanz und einigen Experten aus aller Welt umgesetzt werden soll. Außerdem geht sie der Frage nach, was der Unterschied vom klassischen zum hybriden Projektmanagement, welches hier angewendet wird ist und wie es möglich ist eine Supply-Chain für dieses Projekt zu erstellen.

Botswana is a country in southern Africa with rich mineral resources, which has built its economy on mining. Due to challenges in the upcoming years caused by climate and demographic change, it aims to move away from a resource-based economy to a knowledge-based economy in the long term. In order to support the process, the Maun Science Park, a centre for research and development is planned to be created in Maun, a town on the edge of the Okavango Delta. The project is initiated by the “International Resilience and Sustainability Partnership” (inRES), a non-governmental organization. The project is currently in the initiation phase. The purpose of this thesis is to determine a cost framework with exemplary developer calculation and sensitivity analysis for the Maun Science Park Project in Botswana. Therefor, a source research was performed in a first step. Based on this, interviews were conducted with members of the inRES. Based on the data obtained and further assumptions, a cost framework for the different project phases of the MSP project was established. Subsequently, a developer calculation was exemplarily carried out on the basis of the project phase 2 and a sensitivity analysis was performed. During the interviews, data was collected on the different project phases. It became clear that the interview partners had partly inconsistent perceptions about different project phases. The calculation can be used as a basis for further calculation at the time of concretization of the planning data.