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Probabilistic Short-Term Low-Voltage Load Forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows
(2021)
The transition to a fully renewable energy grid requires better forecasting of demand at the low-voltage level. However, high fluctuations and increasing electrification cause huge forecast errors with traditional point estimates. Probabilistic load forecasts take future uncertainties into account and thus enables various applications in low-carbon energy systems. We propose an approach for flexible conditional density forecasting of short-term load based on Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows where a neural network controls the parameters of the flow. In an empirical study with 363 smart meter customers, our density predictions compare favorably against Gaussian and Gaussian mixture densities and also outperform a non-parametric approach based on the pinball loss for 24h-ahead load forecasting for two different neural network architectures.
Ballistocardiography (BCG) can be used to monitor heart rate activity. Besides, the accelerometer should have high sensitivity and minimal internal noise; a low-cost approach was taken into consideration. Several measurements have been executed to determine the optimal positioning of a sensor under the mattress to obtain a signal strong enough for further analysis. A prototype for an unobtrusive accelerometer-based measurement system has been developed and tested in a conventional bed without any specific extras. The influence of the human sleep position for the output accelerometer data was tested. The obtained results indicate the potential to capture BCG signals using accelerometers. The measurement system can detect heart rate in an unobtrusive form in the home environment.
We compared vulnerable and fixed versions of the source code of 50 different PHP open source projects based on CVE reports for SQL injection vulnerabilities. We scanned the source code with commercial and open source tools for static code analysis. Our results show that five current state-of-the-art tools have issues correctly marking vulnerable and safe code. We identify 25 code patterns that are not detected as a vulnerability by at least one of the tools and 6 code patterns that are mistakenly reported as a vulnerability that cannot be confirmed by manual code inspection. Knowledge of the patterns could help vendors of static code analysis tools, and software developers could be instructed to avoid patterns that confuse automated tools.
The last decades have shown that the volume of tourism, in general, is constantly increasing (with some justified exceptions). To offer a possibility of travel for all groups of people, it is necessary to pay attention to accessibility. One of the possibilities for increasing accessibility is digital technologies, which could assist in planning and the implementation and completion of trips. To make a selection of technologies, first, a study of barriers was conducted, which was then analyzed, and finally, some technologies were made available in a test setup. A focus on two technologies was made: 360°-Tours and mobile app with the travel information. The two technologies were implemented and presented to the test subjects.
The evaluation results showed that both technologies could increase accessibility if some essential aspects (such as usability, completeness, relevance, etc.) are considered during the implementation.
The development of home health systems can provide continuous and user-friendly monitoring of key health parameters. This project aims to create a concept for such a system, implement it on a test basis, and evaluate it. Three health areas were selected for this purpose:
Sleep, Stress, and Rehabilitation. Appropriate devices were installed in the homes of test subjects and used by them for two weeks. Besides, relevant questionnaires were completed to obtain a complete picture. Finally, the implemented system was evaluated, and the results of the conducted study showed that home health systems have great potential. However, it is necessary to consider some points to increase the usability of the system and the motivation of the users. Among others, ease of use of the equipment is of extreme importance.
Health monitoring in a home environment can have broader use since it may provide continuous control of health parameters with relatively minor intrusiveness into regular life. This work aims to verify if it is possible to replace the typical in some sleep medicine areas subjective questioning by an objective measurement using electronic devices. For this purpose, a study was conducted with ten subjects, in which objective and subjective measurement of relevant sleep parameters took place. The results of both measurement methods were evaluated and analyzed. The results showed that while for some measures, such as Total Time in Bed, there is a high agreement between objective and subjective measurements, for others, such as sleep quality, there are significant differences. For this reason, currently, a combination of both measurement methods may be beneficial and provide the most detailed results, while a partial replacement can already reduce the number of questions at the subjective measurement by measurement through electronic devices.
Identifikation von Schlaf- und Wachzuständen durch die Auswertung von Atem- und Bewegungssignalen
(2021)
In this paper, a novel measurement model based on spherical double Fourier series (DFS) for estimating the 3D shape of a target concurrently with its kinematic state is introduced. Here, the shape is represented as a star-convex radial function, decomposed as spherical DFS. In comparison to ordinary DFS, spherical DFS do not suffer from ambiguities at the poles. Details will be given in the paper. The shape representation is integrated into a Bayesian state estimator framework via a measurement equation. As range sensors only generate measurements from the target side facing the sensor, the shape representation is modified to enable application of shape symmetries during the estimation process. The model is analyzed in simulations and compared to a shape estimation procedure using spherical harmonics. Finally, shape estimation using spherical and ordinary DFS is compared to analyze the effect of the pole problem in extended object tracking (EOT) scenarios.
Twenty-first century infrastructure needs to respond to changing demographics, becoming climate neutral, resilient and economically affordable, while remaining a driver for development and shared prosperity. However, the infrastructure sector remains one of the least innovative and digitalised, plagued by delays, cost overruns and benefit shortfalls (Cantarelli et al. 2008; Flyvbjerg, 2007; Flyvbjerg et al., 2003; Flyvbjerg et al., 2004). The root cause is the prevailing fragmentation of the infrastructure sector (Fellows and Liu, 2012). To help overcome these challenges, integration of the value chain is needed. This could be achieved through a use-case-based creation of federated ecosystems connecting open and trusted data spaces and advanced services applied to infrastructure projects. Such digital platforms enable full-lifecycle participation and responsible governance guided by a shared infrastructure vision. Digital federation enables secure and sovereign data exchange and thus collaboration across the silos within the infrastructure sector and between industries as well as within and between countries. Such an approach to infrastructure technology policy would not rely on technological solutionism but proposes the development of open and trusted data alliances. Federated data spaces provide access to the emerging data economy, especially for SMEs, and can foster the innovation of new digital services. Such responsible digital governance can help make the infrastructure sector more resilient, efficient and aligned with the realisation of ambitious decarbonisation and environmental protection targets. The European Union and the United States have already developed architectures for sovereign and secure data exchange.