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Forecasting is crucial for both system planning and operations in the energy sector. With increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, increasing fluctuations in the power generation need to be taken into account. Probabilistic load forecasting is a young, but emerging research topic focusing on the prediction of future uncertainties. However, the majority of publications so far focus on techniques like quantile regression, ensemble, or scenario-based methods, which generate discrete quantiles or sets of possible load curves. The conditioned probability distribution remains unknown and can only be estimated when the output is post-processed using a statistical method like kernel density estimation.
Instead, the proposed probabilistic deep learning model uses a cascade of transformation functions, known as normalizing flow, to model the conditioned density function from a smart meter dataset containing electricity demand information for over 4,000 buildings in Ireland. Since the whole probability density function is tractable, the parameters of the model can be obtained by minimizing the negative loglikelihood through the state of the art gradient descent. This leads to the model with the best representation of the data distribution.
Two different deep learning models have been compared, a simple three-layer fully connected neural network and a more advanced convolutional neural network for sequential data processing inspired by the WaveNet architecture. These models have been used to parametrize three different probabilistic models, a simple normal distribution, a Gaussian mixture model, and the normalizing flow model. The prediction horizon is set to one day with a resolution of 30 minutes, hence the models predict 48 conditioned probability distributions.
The normalizing flow model outperforms the two other variants for both architectures and proves its ability to capture the complex structures and dependencies causing the variations in the data. Understanding the stochastic nature of the task in such detail makes the methodology applicable for other use cases apart from forecasting. It is shown how it can be used to detect anomalies in the power grid or generate synthetic scenarios for grid planning.
The transformation to an Industry 4.0, which is in general seen as a solution to increasing market challenges, is forcing companies to radically change their way of thinking and to be open to new forms of cooperation. In this context, the opening-up of the innovation process is widely seen as a necessity to meet these challenges, especially for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The aim of the study therefore is to analyze how cooperation today can be characterized, how this character has changed since the establishment of the term Industry 4.0 at Hanover Fair in 2011 and which cooperation strategies have proven successful. The analysis consists of a quantitative, secondary data analysis that includes country-specific data from 35 European countries of 2010 and 2016 collected by the European Commission and the OECD. The research, focusing on the secondary sector, shows that multinational enterprises MNEs still tend to cooperate more than SMEs, with a slight overall trend towards protectionism. Nevertheless, there is a clear tendency towards the opening-up of SMEs. In this regard, especially universities, competitors and suppliers have become increasingly attractive as cooperation partners for SMEs.
Botswana, a new construction project – the Maun Science Park - is to be built with a focus on sustainability and to create a new living space for the rapidly growing population in Africa. The project will be a blueprint for future projects in Africain terms of progress, technology and sustainability. This thesis will deal with its financial framework and will serve as a basis for the development of ways and means of financing such projects.
Kleine und mittelständische Unternehmen (KMU) sind bekannt für ihre Innovationskraft und bilden das Rückgrat der deutschen Wirtschaft. Wie Studien zeigen sind sie in Bezug auf Compliance-Maßnahmen im Vergleich zu
kapitalmarktorientierten Unternehmen jedoch im Rückstand. Eine gesonderte Betrachtung der IT-Compliance erfolgt dabei in den Studien in der Regel nicht. Auch wenn zu den Gründen und Motiven fehlender IT-Compliance-Strukturen in KMU kaum Forschungsergebnisse vorliegen, zeigen doch die vielen Publikationen, die sich mit Teilaspekten von Compliance und KMU beschäftigen, dass Handlungsbedarf besteht. Insbesondere die aktuellen Veränderungen unter dem Stichwort Digitalisierung deuten auf eine gesteigerte Bedeutung von IT-Compliance-Maßnahmen vor allem in mittelständischen Unternehmen. In dieser Arbeit sollen daher mithilfe einer Literaturrecherche die aktuell behandelten Themen in Bezug auf IT-Compliance und KMU analysiert sowie aktuelle Themenschwerpunkte herausgearbeitet werden.
Shared Field, Divided Field
(2020)