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Probabilistic Short-Term Low-Voltage Load Forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows
(2021)
The transition to a fully renewable energy grid requires better forecasting of demand at the low-voltage level. However, high fluctuations and increasing electrification cause huge forecast errors with traditional point estimates. Probabilistic load forecasts take future uncertainties into account and thus enables various applications in low-carbon energy systems. We propose an approach for flexible conditional density forecasting of short-term load based on Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows where a neural network controls the parameters of the flow. In an empirical study with 363 smart meter customers, our density predictions compare favorably against Gaussian and Gaussian mixture densities and also outperform a non-parametric approach based on the pinball loss for 24h-ahead load forecasting for two different neural network architectures.
Sustainable technologies are being increasingly used in various areas of human life. While they have a multitude of benefits, they are especially useful in health monitoring, especially for certain groups of people, such as the elderly. However, there are still several issues that need to be addressed before its use becomes widespread. This work aims to clarify the aspects that are of great importance for increasing the acceptance of the use of this type of technology in the elderly. In addition, we aim to clarify whether the technologies that are already available are able to ensure acceptable accuracy and whether they could replace some of the manual approaches that are currently being used. A two-week study with people 65 years of age and over was conducted to address the questions posed here, and the results were evaluated. It was demonstrated that simplicity of use and automatic functioning play a crucial role. It was also concluded that technology cannot yet completely replace traditional methods such as questionnaires in some areas. Although the technologies that were tested were classified as being “easy to use”, the elderly population in the current study indicated that they were not sure that they would use these technologies regularly in the long term because the added value is not always clear, among other issues. Therefore, awareness-raising must take place in parallel with the development of technologies and services.
Generalized Concatenated Codes over Gaussian and Eisenstein Integers for Code-Based Cryptography
(2021)
The code-based McEliece and Niederreiter cryptosystems are promising candidates for post-quantum public-key encryption. Recently, q-ary concatenated codes over Gaussian integers were proposed for the McEliece cryptosystem together with the one-Mannheim error channel, where the error values are limited to Mannheim weight one. Due to the limited error values, the codes over Gaussian integers achieve a higher error correction capability than maximum distance separable (MDS) codes with bounded minimum distance decoding. This higher error correction capability improves the work factor regarding decoding attacks based on information-set decoding. The codes also enable a low complexity decoding algorithm for decoding beyond the guaranteed error correction capability. In this work, we extend this coding scheme to codes over Eisenstein integers. These codes have advantages for the Niederreiter system. Additionally, we propose an improved code construction based on generalized concatenated codes. These codes extent the rate region where the work factor is beneficial compared to MDS codes. Moreover, generalized concatenated codes are more robust against structural attacks than ordinary concatenated codes.
Das Ziel dieser Arbeit war die Konzeption eines untergeordneten Stadtbusnetzes der Stadt Konstanz. Dabei wurde auf einem bereits entwickelten Entwurf eines übergeordneten Netzes aufgesetzt. Durch die Kombination dieser beiden entstand ein Gesamtbusnetz.
Im ersten Schritt wurde eine breit gefächerte Bestandsanalyse durchgeführt, inbegriffen war dabei eine Analyse des übergeordneten Busnetzes. Die gebündelten Ergebnisse gaben den Rahmen für die Konzeption vor. Danach folgte der schrittweise Entwurf der einzelnen Linien des untergeordneten Netzes. Im letzten Schritt der Konzeption wurden die Linien an wichtigen Umsteigeknoten und Parkräumen aufeinander abgestimmt.
Aus der genannten Analyse resultierten diverse Anforderungen für die Konzeption eines neuen Busnetzes. Hierbei konnte die Anbindung an die Bahn und das neu entstehende Mobilitätszentrum besonders hervorgehoben werden. Das Ergebnis der Konzeption waren elf Buslinien, die dem untergeordneten Netz zugewiesen werden können. Gemeinsam mit den fünf Linien des übergeordneten Entwurfs bilden sie ein Gesamtstadtbusnetz. Dabei wurden die Streckenverläufe der Linien aufeinander abgestimmt, sodass ein breitgefächertes Netz an Direktverbindungen entstehen konnte. Mithilfe der Abstimmung an Umsteigeknoten konnten sinnvolle Umsteigerelationen geschaffen werden, wodurch die Direktverbindungen zu einer flächendeckenden Anbindung der Stadtteile an relevante Ziele im Stadtgebiet erweitert wurden.
Auf theoretischer Ebene wurde hier aufgezeigt, wie ein neues Buskonzept der Stadt Konstanz gestaltet sein kann. Das vorliegende Konzept sollte in einer separaten Arbeit auf eine tatsächliche Umsetzbarkeit geprüft werden.
Optimierungsansätze zur Verbesserung der Leistungsbeschreibungen bei öffentlichen Bauvorhaben
(2021)
Elbphilharmonie, BER, Bischofsresistenz Limburg, Stuttgart 21, Alter Elbtunnel Hamburg. Alles bekannte deutsche Bauprojekte der letzten 20 Jahre. Alle mit einer Gemeinsamkeit: Exorbitante Kostenexplosionen und Bauzeitenverzögerungen.
In dieser Arbeit wird aufgezeigt, weshalb solche Kostenexplosionen auch aufgrund von Unklarheiten bzw. Fehlern in Leistungsbeschreibungen entstehen und welches enorme Potential klare und erschöpfende Leistungsbeschreibungen haben, um bereits im Vorfeld eines Bauvorhabens die Weichen für einen reibungslosen und erfolgreichen Projektverlauf zu stellen.
Many countries offer state credit guarantees to support credit-constrained exporters. The policy instrument is commonly justified by governments as a means to mitigating adverse outcomes of financial market frictions for exporting firms. Accumulated returns to the German state credit guarantee scheme deriving from risk-compensating premia have outweighed accumulated losses over the past 60 years. Why do private financial agents not step in and provide insurance given that the state-run program yields positive returns? We argue that costs of risk diversification, liquidity management, and coordination among creditors limit the ability of private financial agents to offer comparable insurance products. Moreover, we suggest that the government’s greater effectiveness in recovering claims in foreign countries endows the state with a cost advantage in dealing with the risks involved in large export projects. We test these hypotheses using monthly firm-level data combined with official transaction-level data on covered exports of German firms and find suggestive evidence that positive effects on trade are due to mitigated financial constraints: State credit guarantees benefit firms that are dependent on external finance, if the value at risk which they seek to cover is large, and at times when refinancing conditions on the private financial market are tight.
Modular arithmetic over integers is required for many cryptography systems. Montgomeryreduction is an efficient algorithm for the modulo reduction after a multiplication. Typically, Mont-gomery reduction is used for rings of ordinary integers. In contrast, we investigate the modularreduction over rings of Gaussian integers. Gaussian integers are complex numbers where the real andimaginary parts are integers. Rings over Gaussian integers are isomorphic to ordinary integer rings.In this work, we show that Montgomery reduction can be applied to Gaussian integer rings. Twoalgorithms for the precision reduction are presented. We demonstrate that the proposed Montgomeryreduction enables an efficient Gaussian integer arithmetic that is suitable for elliptic curve cryptogra-phy. In particular, we consider the elliptic curve point multiplication according to the randomizedinitial point method which is protected against side-channel attacks. The implementation of thisprotected point multiplication is significantly faster than comparable algorithms over ordinary primefields.
Beim data-driven learning (DDL) werden Lernerinnen und Lerner angeleitet, sprachliche Muster mit Hilfe von Korpuswerkzeugen zu entdecken und eigene Korpusabfragen durchzuführen. Am Beispiel einer Unterrichtseinheit für den Wirtschaftsdeutsch-Unterricht wird der Einsatz von DDL erläutert. Es wird deutlich, welche Chancen korpuslinguistische Verfahren bieten, aber auch, welche Probleme beim DDL auftreten können. Vor allem für die Planung des Fachsprachenunter-richts können korpuslinguistische Analysen hilfreich sein: Zu nennen sind die Bedarfsermittlung, die Auswahl von Materialien, die Identifizierung von typischem Wortschatz und häufigen Mustern sowie die Erstellung von Übungsmaterialien. Das Praxisbeispiel, das auf andere Kontexte übertragen werden kann, illustriert, wie sich korpuslinguistische Verfahren und DDL auf die Unterrichtsplanung und -durchführung auswirken: Sprache wird als Datenmenge betrachtet; der Fokus liegt auf sprachlichen Mustern; Fragen nach der Korrektheit bzw. der Angemessenheit werden thematisiert.
The McEliece cryptosystem is a promising candidate for post-quantum public-key encryption. In this work, we propose q-ary codes over Gaussian integers for the McEliece system and a new channel model. With this one Mannheim error channel, errors are limited to weight one. We investigate the channel capacity of this channel and discuss its relation to the McEliece system. The proposed codes are based on a simple product code construction and have a low complexity decoding algorithm. For the one Mannheim error channel, these codes achieve a higher error correction capability than maximum distance separable codes with bounded minimum distance decoding. This improves the work factor regarding decoding attacks based on information-set decoding.
Zur Erfassung von Veränderungen der Produkteigenschaften während der Trocknung von Lebensmitteln werden zerstörungsfreie Qualitätsmesstechniken gefordert, mit denen Veränderungen im Inneren des Produkts bestimmt werden können. Gerade im industriellen Einsatz sind schnelle, präzise, und gleichzeitig robuste Verfahren besonders wichtig, um qualitativ hochwertige Produkte zu erhalten.
In dieser Arbeit wurde zur optischen Qualitätsmessung ein neuartiges multispektrales Kamerasystem eingesetzt, um von Veränderungen der spektralen Oberflächenreflexion bei der Mango- und Ananastrocknung mit Veränderungen der Produktfeuchte, sowie mechanischen und chemischen Eigenschaften zu verknüpfen. Diese Verknüpfung wurde mit maschinellem Lernen erreicht.
In einem ersten Schritt wurde ein neues Kameraprinzip, eine multispektrale Flächenkamera mit vier Objektiven und Vorsatzfiltern, entwickelt und speziell auf den Einsatz in der Obsttrocknung angepasst. Anschließend wurden die Änderungen der Spektren und der Qualitätskriterien während der Trocknung gemessen. Dazu wurden Mango- und Ananasscheiben in einem Einzelschichttrockner bei Lufttemperaturen zwischen 40 °C und 80 °C und relativen Luftfeuchtigkeiten von 5 % bis 30 % getrocknet. Während der gesamten Trocknungsdauer wurde die Produktfeuchte der Proben gemessen, und Bilder mit der multispektralen Flächenkamera aufgenommen. Zur Analysen von nur ausgewählten Bereichen von Interesse in den Bildern wurde ein Softwarefilter entwickelt. Aus Spektraldaten und Prozessdaten konnte mit Algorithmen des maschinellen Lernens die Produktfeuchte zu jedem Zeitpunkt sehr genau vorhergesagt werden (Bestimmtheitsmaß R² von 0,98 bis 0,99). Die Kombination aus dem Prinzip der multispektralen Flächenkamera und maschinellem Lernen wurde in einem anderen Trocknungsprozess und mit weiteren Qualitätskriterien getestet. Dafür wurden Mangoscheiben in einem Schranktrockner getrocknet und deren Produkteigenschaften anhand der Spektraldaten und der Prozessdaten vorhergesagt. Bei der Vorhersage der Farbwerte Δa*, Δb* und ΔE00 sowie des Gehalts an gesamtlöslichen Feststoffen im Rehydrierungswasser wurden Bestimmtheitsmaße R² zwischen 0,56 und 0,94 erzielt).
Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass die Kombination aus dem neu entwickelten Multispektralkamerasystem und maschinellem Lernen zur Vorhersage der Produktfeuchte und anderer Qualitätskriterien der Produkte eingesetzt werden kann. Auf diese Weise können Qualitätsänderungen während des Prozesses mit nur wenigen Messgeräten inline überwacht werden.
This paper introduces the concept of Universal Memory Automata (UMA) and automated compilation of Verilog Hardware Description Language (HDL) code at Register Transfer Level (RTL) from UMA graphs for digital designs. The idea is based on the observation that Push Down Automata (PDA) are able to process the Dyk-Language - commonly known as the balanced bracket problem - with a finite set of states while Finite State Machines (FSM) require an infinite set of states. Since infinite sets of states are not applicable to real designs, PDAs appear promising for types of problems similar to the Dyk-Language. PDAs suffer from the problem that complex memory operations need to be emulated by a specific stack management. The presented UMA therefore extends the PDA by other types of memory, e.g. Queue, RAM or CAM. Memories that are eligible for UMAs are supposed to have at least one read and one write port and a one-cycle read/write latency. With their modified state-transfer- and output-function, UMAs are able to operate user-defined numbers, configurations and types of memories. Proof of concept is given by an implementation of a cache coherency protocol, i.e. a practical problem in microprocessor design.
Botswana is a country in southern Africa with rich mineral resources, which has built its economy on mining. Due to challenges in the upcoming years caused by climate and demographic change, it aims to move away from a resource-based economy to a knowledge-based economy in the long term. In order to support the
process, the Maun Science Park, a centre for research and development is planned to be created in Maun, a town on the edge of the Okavango Delta. The project is initiated by the “International Resilience and Sustainability Partnership” (inRES), a non-governmental organization. The project is currently in the initiation phase.
The purpose of this thesis is to determine a cost framework with exemplary developer calculation and sensitivity analysis for the Maun Science Park Project in Botswana. Therefor, a source research was performed in a first step. Based on this, interviews were conducted with members of the inRES. Based on the data
obtained and further assumptions, a cost framework for the different project phases of the MSP project was established. Subsequently, a developer calculation
was exemplarily carried out on the basis of the project phase 2 and a sensitivity analysis was performed.
During the interviews, data was collected on the different project phases. It became clear that the interview partners had partly inconsistent perceptions
about different project phases. The calculation can be used as a basis for further calculation at the time of concretization of the planning data.
Urban car-free mobility
(2021)
Across the globe, urban areas experience the phenomena of rising road-congestion, air pollution and car accidents. These are just a few popular quantified effects that arise due to rapid, uncoordinated urbanization on a car-centric city layout. There is an urgent need to consider new concepts of urban mobility development to combat these negative effects. Car-free mobility is one notion adopted in diverse formats by numerous cities to create a more inclusive, just, healthy and sustainable urban life. The focus of this thesis is to ex- amine whether a car-free mobility concept is applicable to the Maun Science Park, Bot- swana. Therefore, the idea of car-free mobility, its positive aspects as well as its con- straints, are described first. This illustrates the complexity of urban transport planning as it is intertwined with urban land-use, political vision and people’s perceptions and behav- iors. Secondly, examples and strategies on how to change existing structures are pre- sented. Following this, the smart developments in the field of sustainable urban mobility are considered to provide an insight into their assets and drawbacks. Then the local mo- bility conditions are examined before the car-free concept is exemplarily applied to the Maun Science Park via scenario construction. These scenarios give a first vision of how a car-free concept can be applied to the MSP and additionally provide a starting point for future strategic planning as well as inspiration for other cities to follow along.
With the increasing challenges of the 21st century, such as a rapidly growing population, increasing hunger and the destruction of the environment, the demand for sustainable and future-oriented ways of living is growing. To meet this demand, a residential district named Maun Science Park is being built in Botswana to develop a resilient society. In addition to the application of modern technology to optimise the use of resources, the environmentally friendly construction of the buildings is another goal of the project. This thesis investigates the prefabrication of rammed earth in terms of implementation and profitability for the Maun Science Park.
For this purpose, the specific properties, handling, as well as the application of the building material in prefabrication are first discussed.
This is followed by an investigation of how the work processes of prefabrication can be implemented in the Maun Science Park. Based on this, a profitability test is carried out using a break-even and sensitivity analysis.
The analyses showed that the investment in prefabrication is not profitable within the assumed production volume, which is due to the high fixed costs. These are primarily generated by the two main cost drivers, consisting of the new construction of the production hall and the rental of heavy construction equipment.
Lastly, recommendations for action were formulated that provide for a cost reduction in both the two main cost drivers as well as for other decisive factors.
In Maun, Botswana, a self-sufficient, sustainable and future-oriented district will be created, the Maun Science Park. Within this project, several 5-8 storey smart homes shall be built in sustainable construction. The aim of this thesis is to develop a sustainable structural concept for those homes of the Maun Science Park. In a first step, the general basics for tall building structures and sustainable construction were established. Based on those fundamentals, criteria for the structural requirements, the ecological as well as the social sustainability of a structural design could be defined. Subsequently, four structural systems were drafted: a concrete core structure, a steel shear frame structure, a rammed earth shear wall structure and a wooden diagrid structure. In addition to the pre-dimensioning of the systems, a life cycle assessment was set up to evaluate the ecological sustainability of the designs. With the help of a utility value analysis, the wooden diagrid structure was determined as the preferred variant. The comparison of the designs also allows to draw general conclusions for the development of sustainable tall building structures. The results of the life cycle assessment show the advantage of wood as an ecological building material over industrially manufactured building materials, such as steel and concrete. Whereas rammed earth, a likewise ecological building material, is not convincing due to its low strength. In general, a balance is created in the life cycle assessment between ecological and industrially manufactured products in regard of strength and environmental impact. In terms of social sustainability, the design of the structure system can significantly influence the flexibility and use of local resources. However, due to the diversity of sustainable construction, the development of a structural system should be linked to an overarching sustainability concept that takes architecture and stakeholders into account.
In der Nachhaltigkeits-Diskussion spielen anthropogene Treibhausgasemissionen durch den von ihnen hervorgerufenen Klimawandel eine entscheidende Rolle. Im Zuge dessen entscheidet sich die Hochschule Technik, Wirtschaft und Gestaltung in Konstanz (HTWG), eine jährliche Treibhausgasbilanzierung zu erstellen. Durch die jährliche Erfassung der hochschulbezogenen Emissionen erfolgt das Monitoring (dt.: Überwachung).
Die Bilanzierung und Überwachung der durch die Hochschule und ihren Betrieb verursachten Treibhausgasemissionen (THG-Emissionen) dienen als Ausgangspunkt für lokalen Klima-schutz. Die wesentlichen Handlungsfelder werden durch das Identifizieren der Hauptursachen für Treibhausgasemissionen ermittelt und setzen den Startpunkt für die Planung, Auswahl und Umsetzung von Klimaschutzaktivitäten. Durch eine langfristige und regelmäßige Überwachung der Emissionen trägt die HTWG auch über ihre lokalen Systemgrenzen hinaus zum gesellschaftlichen Umweltbewusstsein bei.
Um das Erreichen dieses Ziels zu unterstützen, wird im Rahmen der vorliegenden Abschlussarbeit ein Pflichtenheft erstellt. Dieses enthält eine Ausarbeitung über die erforderlichen Organisations- und Arbeitsstrukturen für das Monitoring der THG-Emissionen. Des Weiteren erfolgt mit der Status-Quo-Abschätzung der THG-Emissionen des festgelegten Basisjahres 2019 die erste exemplarische Praxisanwendung des Pflichtenheftes. Das Monitoring wird mit der Zielsetzung einer maßnahmen- und umsetzungsorientierten Anwendung konzeptioniert, dessen jährliche Erhebung mit einem vertretbaren Aufwand zu realisieren ist.