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Interpretability and uncertainty modeling are important key factors for medical applications. Moreover, data in medicine are often available as a combination of unstructured data like images and structured predictors like patient’s metadata. While deep learning models are state-of-the-art for image classification, the models are often referred to as ’black-box’, caused by the lack of interpretability. Moreover, DL models are often yielding point predictions and are too confident about the parameter estimation and outcome predictions.
On the other side with statistical regression models, it is possible to obtain interpretable predictor effects and capture parameter and model uncertainty based on the Bayesian approach. In this thesis, a publicly available melanoma dataset, consisting of skin lesions and patient’s age, is used to predict the melanoma types by using a semi-structured model, while interpretable components and model uncertainty is quantified. For Bayesian models, transformation model-based variational inference (TM-VI) method is used to determine the posterior distribution of the parameter. Several model constellations consisting of patient’s age and/or skin lesion were implemented and evaluated. Predictive performance was shown to be best by using a combined model of image and patient’s age, while providing the interpretable posterior distribution of the regression coefficient is possible. In addition, integrating uncertainty in image and tabular parts results in larger variability of the outputs corresponding to high uncertainty of the single model components.
This paper presents the implementation of deep learning methods for sleep stage detection by using three signals that can be measured in a non-invasive way: heartbeat signal, respiratory signal, and movement signal. Since signals are measurements taken during the time, the problem is seen as time-series data classification. Deep learning methods are chosen to solve the problem are convolutional neural network and long-short term memory network. Input data is structured as a time-series sequence of mentioned signals that represent 30 seconds epoch, which is a standard interval for sleep analysis. The records used belong to the overall 23 subjects, which are divided into two subsets. Records from 18 subjects were used for training the data and from 5 subjects for testing the data. For detecting four sleep stages: REM (Rapid Eye Movement), Wake, Light sleep (Stage 1 and Stage 2), and Deep sleep (Stage 3 and Stage 4), the accuracy of the model is 55%, and F1 score is 44%. For five stages: REM, Stage 1, Stage 2, Deep sleep (Stage 3 and 4), and Wake, the model gives an accuracy of 40% and F1 score of 37%.