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Short-Term Density Forecasting of Low-Voltage Load using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows
(2023)
The transition to a fully renewable energy grid requires better forecasting of demand at the low-voltage level to increase efficiency and ensure reliable control. However, high fluctuations and increasing electrification cause huge forecast variability, not reflected in traditional point estimates. Probabilistic load forecasts take uncertainties into account and thus allow more informed decision-making for the planning and operation of low-carbon energy systems. We propose an approach for flexible conditional density forecasting of short-term load based on Bernstein polynomial normalizing flows, where a neural network controls the parameters of the flow. In an empirical study with 3639 smart meter customers, our density predictions for 24h-ahead load forecasting compare favorably against Gaussian and Gaussian mixture densities. Furthermore, they outperform a non-parametric approach based on the pinball loss, especially in low-data scenarios.
This study investigates the application of Force Sensing Resistor (FSR) sensors and machine learning algorithms for non-invasive body position monitoring during sleep. Although reliable, traditional methods like Polysomnography (PSG) are invasive and unsuited for extended home-based monitoring. Our approach utilizes FSR sensors placed beneath the mattress to detect body positions effectively. We employed machine learning techniques, specifically Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and XGBoost algorithms, to analyze the sensor data. The models were trained and tested using data from a controlled study with 15 subjects assuming various sleep positions. The performance of these models was evaluated based on accuracy and confusion matrices. The results indicate XGBoost as the most effective model for this application, followed by RF and KNN, offering promising avenues for home-based sleep monitoring systems.
Monitoring heart rate and breathing is essential in understanding the physiological processes for sleep analysis. Polysomnography (PSG) system have traditionally been used for sleep monitoring, but alternative methods can help to make sleep monitoring more portable in someone's home. This study conducted a series of experiments to investigate the use of pressure sensors placed under the bed as an alternative to PSG for monitoring heart rate and breathing during sleep. The following sets of experiments involved the addition of small rubber domes - transparent and black - that were glued to the pressure sensor. The resulting data were compared with the PSG system to determine the accuracy of the pressure sensor readings. The study found that the pressure sensor provided reliable data for extracting heart rate and respiration rate, with mean absolute errors (MAE) of 2.32 and 3.24 for respiration and heart rate, respectively. However, the addition of small rubber hemispheres did not significantly improve the accuracy of the readings, with MAEs of 2.3 bpm and 7.56 breaths per minute for respiration rate and heart rate, respectively. The findings of this study suggest that pressure sensors placed under the bed may serve as a viable alternative to traditional PSG systems for monitoring heart rate and breathing during sleep. These sensors provide a more comfortable and non-invasive method of sleep monitoring. However, the addition of small rubber domes did not significantly enhance the accuracy of the readings, indicating that it may not be a worthwhile addition to the pressure sensor system.
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are leading contributors to global mortality, necessitating advanced methods for vital sign monitoring. Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and Respiratory Rate, key indicators of cardiovascular health, are traditionally monitored via Electrocardiogram (ECG). However, ECG's obtrusiveness limits its practicality, prompting the exploration of Ballistocardiography (BCG) as a non-invasive alternative. BCG records the mechanical activity of the body with each heartbeat, offering a contactless method for HRV monitoring. Despite its benefits, BCG signals are susceptible to external interference and present a challenge in accurately detecting J-Peaks. This research uses advanced signal processing and deep learning techniques to overcome these limitations. Our approach integrates accelerometers for long-term BCG data collection during sleep, applying Discrete Wavelet Transforms (DWT) and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) for feature extraction. The Bi-LSTM model, leveraging these features, enhances heartbeat detection, offering improved reliability over traditional methods. The study's findings indicate that the combined use of DWT, EEMD, and Bi-LSTM for J-Peak detection in BCG signals is effective, with potential applications in unobtrusive long-term cardiovascular monitoring. Our results suggest that this methodology could contribute to HRV monitoring, particularly in home settings, enhancing patient comfort and compliance.
Spatial modulation (SM) is a low-complexity multiple-input/multiple-output transmission technique that combines index modulation and quadrature amplitude modulation for wireless communications. In this work, we consider the problem of link adaption for generalized spatial modulation (GSM) systems that use multiple active transmit antennas simultaneously. Link adaption algorithms require a real-time estimation of the link quality of the time-variant communication channels, e.g., by means of estimating the mutual information. However, determining the mutual information of SM is challenging because no closed-form expressions have been found so far. Recently, multilayer feedforward neural networks were applied to compute the achievable rate of an index modulation link. However, only a small SM system with two transmit and two receive antennas was considered. In this work, we consider a similar approach but investigate larger GSM systems with multiple active antennas. We analyze the portions of mutual information related to antenna selection and the IQ modulation processes, which depend on the GSM variant and the signal constellation.
Non-volatile NAND flash memories store information as an electrical charge. Different read reference voltages are applied to read the data. However, the threshold voltage distributions vary due to aging effects like program erase cycling and data retention time. It is necessary to adapt the read reference voltages for different life-cycle conditions to minimize the error probability during readout. In the past, methods based on pilot data or high-resolution threshold voltage histograms were proposed to estimate the changes in voltage distributions. In this work, we propose a machine learning approach with neural networks to estimate the read reference voltages. The proposed method utilizes sparse histogram data for the threshold voltage distributions. For reading the information from triple-level cell (TLC) memories, several read reference voltages are applied in sequence. We consider two histogram resolutions. The simplest histogram consists of the zero-and-one ratios for the hard decision read operation, whereas a higher resolution is obtained by considering the quantization levels for soft-input decoding. This approach does not require pilot data for the voltage adaptation. Furthermore, only a few measurements of extreme points of the threshold voltage distributions are required as training data. Measurements with different conditions verify the proposed approach. The resulting neural networks perform well under other life-cycle conditions.
Reliability is a crucial aspect of non-volatile NAND flash memories, and it is essential to thoroughly analyze the channel to prevent errors and ensure accurate readout. Es-timating the read reference voltages (RRV s) is a significant challenge due to the multitude of physical effects involved. The question arises which features are useful and necessary for the RRV estimation. Various possible features require specialized hardware or specific readout techniques to be usable. In contrast we consider sparse histograms based on the decision thresholds for hard-input and soft-input decoding. These offer a distinct advantage as they are derived directly from the raw readout data without the need for decoding. This paper focuses on the information-theoretic study of different features, especially on the exploration of the mutual information (MI) between feature vector and RRV. In particular, we investigate the dependency of the MI on the resolution of the histograms. With respect to the RRV estimation, sparse histograms provide sufficient information for near-optimum estimation.
In 3D extended object tracking (EOT), well-established models exist for tracking the object extent using various shape priors. A single update, however, has to be performed for every measurement using these models leading to a high computational runtime for high-resolution sensors. In this paper, we address this problem by using various model-independent downsampling schemes based on distance heuristics and random sampling as pre-processing before the update. We investigate the methods in a simulated and real-world tracking scenario using two different measurement models with measurements gathered from a LiDAR sensor. We found that there is a huge potential for speeding up 3D EOT by dropping up to 95\% of the measurements in our investigated scenarios when using random sampling. Since random sampling, however, can also result in a subset that does not represent the total set very well, leading to a poor tracking performance, there is still a high demand for further research.
In the past years, algorithms for 3D shape tracking using radial functions in spherical coordinates represented with different methods have been proposed. However, we have seen that mainly measurements from the lateral surface of the target can be expected in a lot of dynamic scenarios and only few measurements from the top and bottom parts leading to an error-prone shape estimate in the top and bottom regions when using a representation in spherical coordinates. We, therefore, propose to represent the shape of the target using a radial function in cylindrical coordinates, as these only represent regions of the lateral surface, and no information from the top or bottom parts is needed. In this paper, we use a Fourier-Chebyshev double series for 3D shape representation since a mixture of Fourier and Chebyshev series is a suitable basis for expanding a radial function in cylindrical coordinates. We investigate the method in a simulated and real-world maritime scenario with a CAD model of the target boat as a reference. We have found that shape representation in cylindrical coordinates has decisive advantages compared to a shape representation in spherical coordinates and should preferably be used if no prior knowledge of the measurement distribution on the surface of the target is available.
Study design:
Retrospective, mono-centric cohort research study.
Objectives:
The purpose of this study is to validate a novel artificial intelligence (AI)-based algorithm against human-generated ground truth for radiographic parameters of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS).
Methods:
An AI-algorithm was developed that is capable of detecting anatomical structures of interest (clavicles, cervical, thoracic, lumbar spine and sacrum) and calculate essential radiographic parameters in AP spine X-rays fully automatically. The evaluated parameters included T1-tilt, clavicle angle (CA), coronal balance (CB), lumbar modifier, and Cobb angles in the proximal thoracic (C-PT), thoracic, and thoracolumbar regions. Measurements from 2 experienced physicians on 100 preoperative AP full spine X-rays of AIS patients were used as ground truth and to evaluate inter-rater and intra-rater reliability. The agreement between human raters and AI was compared by means of single measure Intra-class Correlation Coefficients (ICC; absolute agreement; .75 rated as excellent), mean error and additional statistical metrics.
Results:
The comparison between human raters resulted in excellent ICC values for intra- (range: .97-1) and inter-rater (.85-.99) reliability. The algorithm was able to determine all parameters in 100% of images with excellent ICC values (.78-.98). Consistently with the human raters, ICC values were typically smallest for C-PT (eg, rater 1A vs AI: .78, mean error: 4.7°) and largest for CB (.96, -.5 mm) as well as CA (.98, .2°).
Conclusions:
The AI-algorithm shows excellent reliability and agreement with human raters for coronal parameters in preoperative full spine images. The reliability and speed offered by the AI-algorithm could contribute to the efficient analysis of large datasets (eg, registry studies) and measurements in clinical practice.
Linear and nonlinear response functions (RF) are extracted for the climate system and the carbon cycle represented by the MPI-ESM and cGENIE models, respectively. Appropriately designed simulations are run for this purpose. Joining these RFs, we have a climate emulator with carbon emissions as the forcing and any desired observable quantity (provided the data is saved), such as the surface air temperature or precipitation, as the predictand. Like e.g. for atmospheric CO2 concentration, we also have RFs for the solar constant as a forcing — mimicking solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. We consider two application cases. 1. One is based on the Paris 2015 agreement, determining the necessary least amount of SRM geoengineering needed to keep the global mean surface air temperature below a certain threshold, e.g. 1.5 or 2 [oC], given a certain amount of carbon emission abatement (ABA) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) geoengineering. 2. The other application considers the conservation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). Using a zero-dimensional simplification of a complex ice sheet model, we determine (a) if we need SRM given some ABA and CDR, and, if possible, (b) the required least amount of SRM to avoid the collapse of the GrIS. Keeping temperatures below 2 [oC] even is hardly possible without sustained SRM (1.); however, the collapse of the GrIS can be avoided applying SRM even for moderate levels of CDR and ABA, an overshoot being affordable (2.).
As one of the most important branches of the industry in Germany and
the European Union, the mechanical and plant engineering sector is confronted with fundamental changes due to ever shorter innovation cycles and increased competitive pressure. This makes it even more important to increase the level of service components in business models with a low service level, which are still frequently found in SMEs. This paper is dedicated to the changes that the individual components of a business model have experienced and will experience. Special attention is paid to economic sustainability, since service business models can also positively influence the long-term nature of a business. Seven interviews conducted with relevant companies serve as the empirical basis of this paper. The analysed effects of smart services and active customer integration are structured and summarized within the three pillars of every business model (value proposition, the value creation architecture and the revenue mechanic).
Sleep is extremely important for physical and mental health. Although polysomnography is an established approach in sleep analysis, it is quite intrusive and expensive. Consequently, developing a non-invasive and non-intrusive home sleep monitoring system with minimal influence on patients, that can reliably and accurately measure cardiorespiratory parameters, is of great interest. The aim of this study is to validate a non-invasive and unobtrusive cardiorespiratory parameter monitoring system based on an accelerometer sensor. This system includes a special holder to install the system under the bed mattress. The additional aim is to determine the optimum relative system position (in relation to the subject) at which the most accurate and precise values of measured parameters could be achieved. The data were collected from 23 subjects (13 males and 10 females). The obtained ballistocardiogram signal was sequentially processed using a sixth-order Butterworth bandpass filter and a moving average filter. As a result, an average error (compared to reference values) of 2.24 beats per minute for heart rate and 1.52 breaths per minute for respiratory rate was achieved, regardless of the subject’s sleep position. For males and females, the errors were 2.28 bpm and 2.19 bpm for heart rate and 1.41 rpm and 1.30 rpm for respiratory rate. We determined that placing the sensor and system at chest level is the preferred configuration for cardiorespiratory measurement. Further studies of the system’s performance in larger groups of subjects are required, despite the promising results of the current tests in healthy subjects.
Sleep is an essential part of human existence, as we are in this state for approximately a third of our lives. Sleep disorders are common conditions that can affect many aspects of life. Sleep disorders are diagnosed in special laboratories with a polysomnography system, a costly procedure requiring much effort for the patient. Several systems have been proposed to address this situation, including performing the examination and analysis at the patient's home, using sensors to detect physiological signals automatically analysed by algorithms. This work aims to evaluate the use of a contactless respiratory recording system based on an accelerometer sensor in sleep apnea detection. For this purpose, an installation mounted under the bed mattress records the oscillations caused by the chest movements during the breathing process. The presented processing algorithm performs filtering of the obtained signals and determines the apnea events presence. The performance of the developed system and algorithm of apnea event detection (average values of accuracy, specificity and sensitivity are 94.6%, 95.3%, and 93.7% respectively) confirms the suitability of the proposed method and system for further ambulatory and in-home use.
Sleep is essential to physical and mental health. However, the traditional approach to sleep analysis—polysomnography (PSG)—is intrusive and expensive. Therefore, there is great interest in the development of non-contact, non-invasive, and non-intrusive sleep monitoring systems and technologies that can reliably and accurately measure cardiorespiratory parameters with minimal impact on the patient. This has led to the development of other relevant approaches, which are characterised, for example, by the fact that they allow greater freedom of movement and do not require direct contact with the body, i.e., they are non-contact. This systematic review discusses the relevant methods and technologies for non-contact monitoring of cardiorespiratory activity during sleep. Taking into account the current state of the art in non-intrusive technologies, we can identify the methods of non-intrusive monitoring of cardiac and respiratory activity, the technologies and types of sensors used, and the possible physiological parameters available for analysis. To do this, we conducted a literature review and summarised current research on the use of non-contact technologies for non-intrusive monitoring of cardiac and respiratory activity. The inclusion and exclusion criteria for the selection of publications were established prior to the start of the search. Publications were assessed using one main question and several specific questions. We obtained 3774 unique articles from four literature databases (Web of Science, IEEE Xplore, PubMed, and Scopus) and checked them for relevance, resulting in 54 articles that were analysed in a structured way using terminology. The result was 15 different types of sensors and devices (e.g., radar, temperature sensors, motion sensors, cameras) that can be installed in hospital wards and departments or in the environment. The ability to detect heart rate, respiratory rate, and sleep disorders such as apnoea was among the characteristics examined to investigate the overall effectiveness of the systems and technologies considered for cardiorespiratory monitoring. In addition, the advantages and disadvantages of the considered systems and technologies were identified by answering the identified research questions. The results obtained allow us to determine the current trends and the vector of development of medical technologies in sleep medicine for future researchers and research.
Scheinselbständigkeit
(2023)
Network effects, economies of scale, and lock-in-effects increasingly lead to a concentration of digital resources and capabilities, hindering the free and equitable development of digital entrepreneurship, new skills, and jobs, especially in small communities and their small and medium-sized enterprises (“SMEs”). To ensure the affordability and accessibility of technologies, promote digital entrepreneurship and community well-being, and protect digital rights, we propose data cooperatives as a vehicle for secure, trusted, and sovereign data exchange. In post-pandemic times, community/SME-led cooperatives can play a vital role by ensuring that supply chains to support digital commons are uninterrupted, resilient, and decentralized. Digital commons and data sovereignty provide communities with affordable and easy access to information and the ability to collectively negotiate data-related decisions. Moreover, cooperative commons (a) provide access to the infrastructure that underpins the modern economy, (b) preserve property rights, and (c) ensure that privatization and monopolization do not further erode self-determination, especially in a world increasingly mediated by AI. Thus, governance plays a significant role in accelerating communities’/SMEs’ digital transformation and addressing their challenges. Cooperatives thrive on digital governance and standards such as open trusted application programming interfaces (“APIs”) that increase the efficiency, technological capabilities, and capacities of participants and, most importantly, integrate, enable, and accelerate the digital transformation of SMEs in the overall process. This review article analyses an array of transformative use cases that underline the potential of cooperative data governance. These case studies exemplify how data and platform cooperatives, through their innovative value creation mechanisms, can elevate digital commons and value chains to a new dimension of collaboration, thereby addressing pressing societal issues. Guided by our research aim, we propose a policy framework that supports the practical implementation of digital federation platforms and data cooperatives. This policy blueprint intends to facilitate sustainable development in both the Global South and North, fostering equitable and inclusive data governance strategies.
Increasing demand for sustainable, resilient, and low-carbon construction materials has highlighted the potential of Compacted Mineral Mixtures (CMMs), which are formulated from various soil types (sand, silt, clay) and recycled mineral waste. This paper presents a comprehensive inter- and transdisciplinary research concept that aims to industrialise and scale up the adoption of CMM-based construction materials and methods, thereby accelerating the construction industry’s systemic transition towards carbon neutrality. By drawing upon the latest advances in soil mechanics, rheology, and automation, we propose the development of a robust material properties database to inform the design and application of CMM-based materials, taking into account their complex, time-dependent behaviour. Advanced soil mechanical tests would be utilised to ensure optimal performance under various loading and ageing conditions. This research has also recognised the importance of context-specific strategies for CMM adoption. We have explored the implications and limitations of implementing the proposed framework in developing countries, particularly where resources may be constrained. We aim to shed light on socio-economic and regulatory aspects that could influence the adoption of these sustainable construction methods. The proposed concept explores how the automated production of CMM-based wall elements can become a fast, competitive, emission-free, and recyclable alternative to traditional masonry and concrete construction techniques. We advocate for the integration of open-source digital platform technologies to enhance data accessibility, processing, and knowledge acquisition; to boost confidence in CMM-based technologies; and to catalyse their widespread adoption. We believe that the transformative potential of this research necessitates a blend of basic and applied investigation using a comprehensive, holistic, and transfer-oriented methodology. Thus, this paper serves to highlight the viability and multiple benefits of CMMs in construction, emphasising their pivotal role in advancing sustainable development and resilience in the built environment.