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Probabilistic Short-Term Low-Voltage Load Forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows
(2021)
The transition to a fully renewable energy grid requires better forecasting of demand at the low-voltage level. However, high fluctuations and increasing electrification cause huge forecast errors with traditional point estimates. Probabilistic load forecasts take future uncertainties into account and thus enables various applications in low-carbon energy systems. We propose an approach for flexible conditional density forecasting of short-term load based on Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows where a neural network controls the parameters of the flow. In an empirical study with 363 smart meter customers, our density predictions compare favorably against Gaussian and Gaussian mixture densities and also outperform a non-parametric approach based on the pinball loss for 24h-ahead load forecasting for two different neural network architectures.
In this paper, a novel measurement model based on spherical double Fourier series (DFS) for estimating the 3D shape of a target concurrently with its kinematic state is introduced. Here, the shape is represented as a star-convex radial function, decomposed as spherical DFS. In comparison to ordinary DFS, spherical DFS do not suffer from ambiguities at the poles. Details will be given in the paper. The shape representation is integrated into a Bayesian state estimator framework via a measurement equation. As range sensors only generate measurements from the target side facing the sensor, the shape representation is modified to enable application of shape symmetries during the estimation process. The model is analyzed in simulations and compared to a shape estimation procedure using spherical harmonics. Finally, shape estimation using spherical and ordinary DFS is compared to analyze the effect of the pole problem in extended object tracking (EOT) scenarios.
Im Rahmen des KONTEC Kongresses 2021 in Dresden wurden sowohl ein Poster als auch ein Paper des Forschungsprojekts EKont veröffentlicht. Neben der Schilderung des Versuchsaufbaus werden neuartige Schneidprozesse und Abtragsprinzipien vorgestellt. Im Anschluss daran werden vier Prototypen (gleichsinniger Stufenfräser, gegenläufiger Stufenfräser, mittig gegenläufiger Stufenfräser - Getriebe und oszillierender Werkzeugaufsatz) beschrieben.
We have analyzed a pool of 37,839 articles published in 4,404 business-related journals in the entrepreneurship research field using a novel literature review approach that is based on machine learning and text data mining. Most papers have been published in the journals ‘Small Business Economics’, ‘International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business’, and ‘Sustainability’ (Switzerland), while the sum of citations is highest in the ‘Journal of Business Venturing’, ‘Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice’, and ‘Small Business Economics’. We derived 29 overarching themes based on 52 identified clusters. The social entrepreneurship, development, innovation, capital, and economy clusters represent the largest ones among those with high thematic clarity. The most discussed clusters measured by the average number of citations per assigned paper are research, orientation, capital, gender, and growth. Clusters with the highest average growth in publications per year are social entrepreneurship, innovation, development, entrepreneurship education, and (business-) models. Measured by the average yearly citation rate per paper, the thematic cluster ‘research’, mostly containing literature studies, received most attention. The MLR allows for an inclusion of a significantly higher number of publications compared to traditional reviews thus providing a comprehensive, descriptive overview of the whole research field.
Deep neural networks have become a veritable alternative to classic speaker recognition and clustering methods in recent years. However, while the speech signal clearly is a time series, and despite the body of literature on the benefits of prosodic (suprasegmental) features, identifying voices has usually not been approached with sequence learning methods. Only recently has a recurrent neural network (RNN) been successfully applied to this task, while the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) (that are not able to capture arbitrary time dependencies, unlike RNNs) still prevails. In this paper, we show the effectiveness of RNNs for speaker recognition by improving state of the art speaker clustering performance and robustness on the classic TIMIT benchmark. We provide arguments why RNNs are superior by experimentally showing a “sweet spot” of the segment length for successfully capturing prosodic information that has been theoretically predicted in previous work.
We propose a novel end-to-end neural network architecture that, once trained, directly outputs a probabilistic clustering of a batch of input examples in one pass. It estimates a distribution over the number of clusters k, and for each 1≤k≤kmax, a distribution over the individual cluster assignment for each data point. The network is trained in advance in a supervised fashion on separate data to learn grouping by any perceptual similarity criterion based on pairwise labels (same/different group). It can then be applied to different data containing different groups. We demonstrate promising performance on high-dimensional data like images (COIL-100) and speech (TIMIT). We call this “learning to cluster” and show its conceptual difference to deep metric learning, semi-supervise clustering and other related approaches while having the advantage of performing learnable clustering fully end-to-end.
CO2 compensation measures, in particular the compensation of flights, are becoming more and more popular. Carbon offsetting is defined as measures financed by donations that save greenhouse gases previously emitted elsewhere through climate protection projects.
CO2 abatement costs are often low in developing countries. This is why most offset projects are implemented there. Nevertheless, this does not mean that the holiday resort and the project country are in any way related to each other.
By linking carbon offset projects with the destination country, the tourist is able to get an impression of the co-financed project. In case such projects are realized in cooperation with the hotel, the hotel operator obtains a new tourist attraction and can demonstrate its efforts to climate protection in a PR-effective way.
Fatigue and drowsiness are responsible for a significant percentage of road traffic accidents. There are several approaches to monitor the driver’s drowsiness, ranging from the driver’s steering behavior to analysis of the driver, e.g. eye tracking, blinking, yawning or electrocardiogram (ECG). This paper describes the development of a low-cost ECG sensor to derive heart rate variability (HRV) data for the drowsiness detection. The work includes the hardware and the software design. The hardware has been implemented on a printed circuit board (PCB) designed so that the board can be used as an extension shield for an Arduino. The PCB contains a double, inverted ECG channel including low-pass filtering and provides two analog outputs to the Arduino, that combined them and performs the analog-to-digital conversion. The digital ECG signal is transferred to an NVidia embedded PC where the processing takes place, including QRS-complex, heart rate and HRV detection as well as visualization features. The compact resulting sensor provides good results in the extraction of the main ECG parameters. The sensor is being used in a larger frame, where facial-recognition-based drowsiness detection is combined with ECG-based detection to improve the recognition rate under unfavorable light or occlusion conditions.
In the reverse engineering process one has to classify parts of point clouds with the correct type of geometric primitive. Features based on different geometric properties like point relations, normals, and curvature information can be used, to train classifiers like Support Vector Machines (SVM). These geometric features are estimated in the local neighborhood of a point of the point cloud. The multitude of different features makes an in-depth comparison necessary. In this work we evaluate 23 features for the classification of geometric primitives in point clouds. Their performance is evaluated on SVMs when used to classify geometric primitives in simulated and real laser scanned point clouds. We also introduce a normalization of point cloud density to improve classification generalization.
InBetween
(2017)