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Probabilistic Short-Term Low-Voltage Load Forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows
(2021)
The transition to a fully renewable energy grid requires better forecasting of demand at the low-voltage level. However, high fluctuations and increasing electrification cause huge forecast errors with traditional point estimates. Probabilistic load forecasts take future uncertainties into account and thus enables various applications in low-carbon energy systems. We propose an approach for flexible conditional density forecasting of short-term load based on Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows where a neural network controls the parameters of the flow. In an empirical study with 363 smart meter customers, our density predictions compare favorably against Gaussian and Gaussian mixture densities and also outperform a non-parametric approach based on the pinball loss for 24h-ahead load forecasting for two different neural network architectures.
We propose a novel end-to-end neural network architecture that, once trained, directly outputs a probabilistic clustering of a batch of input examples in one pass. It estimates a distribution over the number of clusters k, and for each 1≤k≤kmax, a distribution over the individual cluster assignment for each data point. The network is trained in advance in a supervised fashion on separate data to learn grouping by any perceptual similarity criterion based on pairwise labels (same/different group). It can then be applied to different data containing different groups. We demonstrate promising performance on high-dimensional data like images (COIL-100) and speech (TIMIT). We call this “learning to cluster” and show its conceptual difference to deep metric learning, semi-supervise clustering and other related approaches while having the advantage of performing learnable clustering fully end-to-end.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are known for their high prediction performance, especially in perceptual tasks such as object recognition or autonomous driving. Still, DNNs are prone to yield unreliable predictions when encountering completely new situations without indicating their uncertainty. Bayesian variants of DNNs (BDNNs), such as MC dropout BDNNs, do provide uncertainty measures. However, BDNNs are slow during test time because they rely on a sampling approach. Here we present a single shot MC dropout approximation that preserves the advantages of BDNNs without being slower than a DNN. Our approach is to analytically approximate for each layer in a fully connected network the expected value and the variance of the MC dropout signal. We evaluate our approach on different benchmark datasets and a simulated toy example. We demonstrate that our single shot MC dropout approximation resembles the point estimate and the uncertainty estimate of the predictive distribution that is achieved with an MC approach, while being fast enough for real-time deployments of BDNNs.
Nowadays, the inexpensive memory space promotes an accelerating growth of stored image data. To exploit the data using supervised Machine or Deep Learning, it needs to be labeled. Manually labeling the vast amount of data is time-consuming and expensive, especially if human experts with specific domain knowledge are indispensable. Active learning addresses this shortcoming by querying the user the labels of the most informative images first. One way to obtain the ‘informativeness’ is by using uncertainty sampling as a query strategy, where the system queries those images it is most uncertain about how to classify. In this paper, we present a web-based active learning framework that helps to accelerate the labeling process. After manually labeling some images, the user gets recommendations of further candidates that could potentially be labeled equally (bulk image folder shift). We aim to explore the most efficient ‘uncertainty’ measure to improve the quality of the recommendations such that all images are sorted with a minimum number of user interactions (clicks). We conducted experiments using a manually labeled reference dataset to evaluate different combinations of classifiers and uncertainty measures. The results clearly show the effectiveness of an uncertainty sampling with bulk image shift recommendations (our novel method), which can reduce the number of required clicks to only around 20% compared to manual labeling.
Deep neural networks have become a veritable alternative to classic speaker recognition and clustering methods in recent years. However, while the speech signal clearly is a time series, and despite the body of literature on the benefits of prosodic (suprasegmental) features, identifying voices has usually not been approached with sequence learning methods. Only recently has a recurrent neural network (RNN) been successfully applied to this task, while the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) (that are not able to capture arbitrary time dependencies, unlike RNNs) still prevails. In this paper, we show the effectiveness of RNNs for speaker recognition by improving state of the art speaker clustering performance and robustness on the classic TIMIT benchmark. We provide arguments why RNNs are superior by experimentally showing a “sweet spot” of the segment length for successfully capturing prosodic information that has been theoretically predicted in previous work.
Deep transformation models
(2021)
We present a deep transformation model for probabilistic regression. Deep learning is known for outstandingly accurate predictions on complex data but in regression tasks it is predominantly used to just predict a single number. This ignores the non-deterministic character of most tasks. Especially if crucial decisions are based on the predictions, like in medical applications, it is essential to quantify the prediction uncertainty. The presented deep learning transformation model estimates the whole conditional probability distribution, which is the most thorough way to capture uncertainty about the outcome. We combine ideas from a statistical transformation model (most likely transformation) with recent transformation models from deep learning (normalizing flows) to predict complex outcome distributions. The core of the method is a parameterized transformation function which can be trained with the usual maximum likelihood framework using gradient descent. The method can be combined with existing deep learning architectures. For small machine learning benchmark datasets, we report state of the art performance for most dataset and partly even outperform it. Our method works for complex input data, which we demonstrate by employing a CNN architecture on image data.