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Probabilistic Short-Term Low-Voltage Load Forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows
(2021)
The transition to a fully renewable energy grid requires better forecasting of demand at the low-voltage level. However, high fluctuations and increasing electrification cause huge forecast errors with traditional point estimates. Probabilistic load forecasts take future uncertainties into account and thus enables various applications in low-carbon energy systems. We propose an approach for flexible conditional density forecasting of short-term load based on Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows where a neural network controls the parameters of the flow. In an empirical study with 363 smart meter customers, our density predictions compare favorably against Gaussian and Gaussian mixture densities and also outperform a non-parametric approach based on the pinball loss for 24h-ahead load forecasting for two different neural network architectures.
Nowadays, the importance of early active patient mobilization in the recovery and rehabilitation phase has increased significantly. One way to involve patients in the treatment is a gamification-like approach, which is one of the methods of motivation in various life processes. This article shows a system prototype for patients who require physical activity because of active early mobilization after medical interventions or during illness. Bedridden patients and people with a sedentary lifestyle (predominantly lying in bed) are also potential users. The main idea for the concept was non-contact system implementation for the patients making them feel effortless during its usage. The system consists of three related parts: hardware, software, and game application. To test the relevance and coherence of the system, it was used by 35 people. The participants were asked to play a video game requiring them to make body movements while lying down. Then they were asked to take part in a small survey to evaluate the system's usability. As a result, we offer a prototype consisting of hardware and software parts that can increase and diversify physical activity during active early mobilization of patients and prevent the occurrence of possible health problems due to predominantly low activity. The proposed design can be possibly implemented in hospitals, rehabilitation centers, and even at home.
Monitoring heart rate and breathing is essential in understanding the physiological processes for sleep analysis. Polysomnography (PSG) system have traditionally been used for sleep monitoring, but alternative methods can help to make sleep monitoring more portable in someone's home. This study conducted a series of experiments to investigate the use of pressure sensors placed under the bed as an alternative to PSG for monitoring heart rate and breathing during sleep. The following sets of experiments involved the addition of small rubber domes - transparent and black - that were glued to the pressure sensor. The resulting data were compared with the PSG system to determine the accuracy of the pressure sensor readings. The study found that the pressure sensor provided reliable data for extracting heart rate and respiration rate, with mean absolute errors (MAE) of 2.32 and 3.24 for respiration and heart rate, respectively. However, the addition of small rubber hemispheres did not significantly improve the accuracy of the readings, with MAEs of 2.3 bpm and 7.56 breaths per minute for respiration rate and heart rate, respectively. The findings of this study suggest that pressure sensors placed under the bed may serve as a viable alternative to traditional PSG systems for monitoring heart rate and breathing during sleep. These sensors provide a more comfortable and non-invasive method of sleep monitoring. However, the addition of small rubber domes did not significantly enhance the accuracy of the readings, indicating that it may not be a worthwhile addition to the pressure sensor system.
Reliability is a crucial aspect of non-volatile NAND flash memories, and it is essential to thoroughly analyze the channel to prevent errors and ensure accurate readout. Es-timating the read reference voltages (RRV s) is a significant challenge due to the multitude of physical effects involved. The question arises which features are useful and necessary for the RRV estimation. Various possible features require specialized hardware or specific readout techniques to be usable. In contrast we consider sparse histograms based on the decision thresholds for hard-input and soft-input decoding. These offer a distinct advantage as they are derived directly from the raw readout data without the need for decoding. This paper focuses on the information-theoretic study of different features, especially on the exploration of the mutual information (MI) between feature vector and RRV. In particular, we investigate the dependency of the MI on the resolution of the histograms. With respect to the RRV estimation, sparse histograms provide sufficient information for near-optimum estimation.
In the past years, algorithms for 3D shape tracking using radial functions in spherical coordinates represented with different methods have been proposed. However, we have seen that mainly measurements from the lateral surface of the target can be expected in a lot of dynamic scenarios and only few measurements from the top and bottom parts leading to an error-prone shape estimate in the top and bottom regions when using a representation in spherical coordinates. We, therefore, propose to represent the shape of the target using a radial function in cylindrical coordinates, as these only represent regions of the lateral surface, and no information from the top or bottom parts is needed. In this paper, we use a Fourier-Chebyshev double series for 3D shape representation since a mixture of Fourier and Chebyshev series is a suitable basis for expanding a radial function in cylindrical coordinates. We investigate the method in a simulated and real-world maritime scenario with a CAD model of the target boat as a reference. We have found that shape representation in cylindrical coordinates has decisive advantages compared to a shape representation in spherical coordinates and should preferably be used if no prior knowledge of the measurement distribution on the surface of the target is available.
The State of Custom
(2021)
In our article, we engage with the anthropologist Gerd Spittler’s pathbreaking
article “Dispute settlement in the shadow of Leviathan” (1980) in which
he strives to integrate the existence of state courts (the eponymous Leviathan’s
shadow) in (post-)colonial Africa into the analysis on non-state court legal practices.
According to Spittler, it is because of undesirable characteristics inherent
in state courts that the disputing parties tended to rather involve mediators than
pursue a state court judgment. The less people liked state courts, the more likely
they were to (re-)turn to dispute settlement procedures. Now how has this situation
changed in the last four decades since its publication date? We relate his findings
to contemporary debates in legal anthropology that investigate the relationship
between disputing, law and the state. We also show through our own work in
Africa and Asia, particularly in Southern Ethiopia and Kyrgyzstan, in what ways
Spittler’s by now classical contribution to the field of legal anthropology in 1980
can be made fruitful for a contemporary anthropology of the state at a time when
not only (legal) anthropology has changed, but especially the way states deal with
putatively “customary” forms of dispute settlement.
The evaluation of the effectiveness of different machine learning algorithms on a publicly available database of signals derived from wearable devices is presented with the goal of optimizing human activity recognition and classification. Among the wide number of body signals we choose a couple of signals, namely photoplethysmographic (optically detected subcutaneous blood volume) and tri-axis acceleration signals that are easy to be simultaneously acquired using commercial widespread devices (e.g. smartwatches) as well as custom wearable wireless devices designed for sport, healthcare, or clinical purposes. To this end, two widely used algorithms (decision tree and k-nearest neighbor) were tested, and their performance were compared to two new recent algorithms (particle Bernstein and a Monte Carlo-based regression) both in terms of accuracy and processing time. A data preprocessing phase was also considered to improve the performance of the machine learning procedures, in order to reduce the problem size and a detailed analysis of the compression strategy and results is also presented.
As one of the most important branches of the industry in Germany and
the European Union, the mechanical and plant engineering sector is confronted with fundamental changes due to ever shorter innovation cycles and increased competitive pressure. This makes it even more important to increase the level of service components in business models with a low service level, which are still frequently found in SMEs. This paper is dedicated to the changes that the individual components of a business model have experienced and will experience. Special attention is paid to economic sustainability, since service business models can also positively influence the long-term nature of a business. Seven interviews conducted with relevant companies serve as the empirical basis of this paper. The analysed effects of smart services and active customer integration are structured and summarized within the three pillars of every business model (value proposition, the value creation architecture and the revenue mechanic).
Sleep is an essential part of human existence, as we are in this state for approximately a third of our lives. Sleep disorders are common conditions that can affect many aspects of life. Sleep disorders are diagnosed in special laboratories with a polysomnography system, a costly procedure requiring much effort for the patient. Several systems have been proposed to address this situation, including performing the examination and analysis at the patient's home, using sensors to detect physiological signals automatically analysed by algorithms. This work aims to evaluate the use of a contactless respiratory recording system based on an accelerometer sensor in sleep apnea detection. For this purpose, an installation mounted under the bed mattress records the oscillations caused by the chest movements during the breathing process. The presented processing algorithm performs filtering of the obtained signals and determines the apnea events presence. The performance of the developed system and algorithm of apnea event detection (average values of accuracy, specificity and sensitivity are 94.6%, 95.3%, and 93.7% respectively) confirms the suitability of the proposed method and system for further ambulatory and in-home use.