Probabilistic Short-Term Low-Voltage Load Forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows
(2021)
The transition to a fully renewable energy grid requires better forecasting of demand at the low-voltage level. However, high fluctuations and increasing electrification cause huge forecast errors with traditional point estimates. Probabilistic load forecasts take future uncertainties into account and thus enables various applications in low-carbon energy systems. We propose an approach for flexible conditional density forecasting of short-term load based on Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows where a neural network controls the parameters of the flow. In an empirical study with 363 smart meter customers, our density predictions compare favorably against Gaussian and Gaussian mixture densities and also outperform a non-parametric approach based on the pinball loss for 24h-ahead load forecasting for two different neural network architectures.
In this paper, we propose a novel method for real-time control of electric distribution grids with a limited number of measurements. The method copes with the changing grid behaviour caused by the increasing number of renewable energies and electric vehicles. Three AI based models are used. Firstly, a probabilistic forecasting estimates possible scenarios at unobserved grid nodes. Secondly, a state estimation is used to detect grid congestion. Finally, a grid control suggests multiple possible solutions for the detected problem. The best countermeasures are then detected by evaluating the systems stability for the next time-step.