Refine
Year of publication
- 2020 (2) (remove)
Document Type
- Conference Proceeding (1)
- Master's Thesis (1)
Language
- English (2)
Has Fulltext
- yes (2)
Keywords
- Machine Learning (2) (remove)
Forecasting is crucial for both system planning and operations in the energy sector. With increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, increasing fluctuations in the power generation need to be taken into account. Probabilistic load forecasting is a young, but emerging research topic focusing on the prediction of future uncertainties. However, the majority of publications so far focus on techniques like quantile regression, ensemble, or scenario-based methods, which generate discrete quantiles or sets of possible load curves. The conditioned probability distribution remains unknown and can only be estimated when the output is post-processed using a statistical method like kernel density estimation.
Instead, the proposed probabilistic deep learning model uses a cascade of transformation functions, known as normalizing flow, to model the conditioned density function from a smart meter dataset containing electricity demand information for over 4,000 buildings in Ireland. Since the whole probability density function is tractable, the parameters of the model can be obtained by minimizing the negative loglikelihood through the state of the art gradient descent. This leads to the model with the best representation of the data distribution.
Two different deep learning models have been compared, a simple three-layer fully connected neural network and a more advanced convolutional neural network for sequential data processing inspired by the WaveNet architecture. These models have been used to parametrize three different probabilistic models, a simple normal distribution, a Gaussian mixture model, and the normalizing flow model. The prediction horizon is set to one day with a resolution of 30 minutes, hence the models predict 48 conditioned probability distributions.
The normalizing flow model outperforms the two other variants for both architectures and proves its ability to capture the complex structures and dependencies causing the variations in the data. Understanding the stochastic nature of the task in such detail makes the methodology applicable for other use cases apart from forecasting. It is shown how it can be used to detect anomalies in the power grid or generate synthetic scenarios for grid planning.
We have analyzed a pool of 37,839 articles published in 4,404 business-related journals in the entrepreneurship research field using a novel literature review approach that is based on machine learning and text data mining. Most papers have been published in the journals ‘Small Business Economics’, ‘International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business’, and ‘Sustainability’ (Switzerland), while the sum of citations is highest in the ‘Journal of Business Venturing’, ‘Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice’, and ‘Small Business Economics’. We derived 29 overarching themes based on 52 identified clusters. The social entrepreneurship, development, innovation, capital, and economy clusters represent the largest ones among those with high thematic clarity. The most discussed clusters measured by the average number of citations per assigned paper are research, orientation, capital, gender, and growth. Clusters with the highest average growth in publications per year are social entrepreneurship, innovation, development, entrepreneurship education, and (business-) models. Measured by the average yearly citation rate per paper, the thematic cluster ‘research’, mostly containing literature studies, received most attention. The MLR allows for an inclusion of a significantly higher number of publications compared to traditional reviews thus providing a comprehensive, descriptive overview of the whole research field.