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Short-Term Density Forecasting of Low-Voltage Load using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows
(2023)
The transition to a fully renewable energy grid requires better forecasting of demand at the low-voltage level to increase efficiency and ensure reliable control. However, high fluctuations and increasing electrification cause huge forecast variability, not reflected in traditional point estimates. Probabilistic load forecasts take uncertainties into account and thus allow more informed decision-making for the planning and operation of low-carbon energy systems. We propose an approach for flexible conditional density forecasting of short-term load based on Bernstein polynomial normalizing flows, where a neural network controls the parameters of the flow. In an empirical study with 3639 smart meter customers, our density predictions for 24h-ahead load forecasting compare favorably against Gaussian and Gaussian mixture densities. Furthermore, they outperform a non-parametric approach based on the pinball loss, especially in low-data scenarios.
This study investigates the application of Force Sensing Resistor (FSR) sensors and machine learning algorithms for non-invasive body position monitoring during sleep. Although reliable, traditional methods like Polysomnography (PSG) are invasive and unsuited for extended home-based monitoring. Our approach utilizes FSR sensors placed beneath the mattress to detect body positions effectively. We employed machine learning techniques, specifically Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and XGBoost algorithms, to analyze the sensor data. The models were trained and tested using data from a controlled study with 15 subjects assuming various sleep positions. The performance of these models was evaluated based on accuracy and confusion matrices. The results indicate XGBoost as the most effective model for this application, followed by RF and KNN, offering promising avenues for home-based sleep monitoring systems.
Monitoring heart rate and breathing is essential in understanding the physiological processes for sleep analysis. Polysomnography (PSG) system have traditionally been used for sleep monitoring, but alternative methods can help to make sleep monitoring more portable in someone's home. This study conducted a series of experiments to investigate the use of pressure sensors placed under the bed as an alternative to PSG for monitoring heart rate and breathing during sleep. The following sets of experiments involved the addition of small rubber domes - transparent and black - that were glued to the pressure sensor. The resulting data were compared with the PSG system to determine the accuracy of the pressure sensor readings. The study found that the pressure sensor provided reliable data for extracting heart rate and respiration rate, with mean absolute errors (MAE) of 2.32 and 3.24 for respiration and heart rate, respectively. However, the addition of small rubber hemispheres did not significantly improve the accuracy of the readings, with MAEs of 2.3 bpm and 7.56 breaths per minute for respiration rate and heart rate, respectively. The findings of this study suggest that pressure sensors placed under the bed may serve as a viable alternative to traditional PSG systems for monitoring heart rate and breathing during sleep. These sensors provide a more comfortable and non-invasive method of sleep monitoring. However, the addition of small rubber domes did not significantly enhance the accuracy of the readings, indicating that it may not be a worthwhile addition to the pressure sensor system.
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are leading contributors to global mortality, necessitating advanced methods for vital sign monitoring. Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and Respiratory Rate, key indicators of cardiovascular health, are traditionally monitored via Electrocardiogram (ECG). However, ECG's obtrusiveness limits its practicality, prompting the exploration of Ballistocardiography (BCG) as a non-invasive alternative. BCG records the mechanical activity of the body with each heartbeat, offering a contactless method for HRV monitoring. Despite its benefits, BCG signals are susceptible to external interference and present a challenge in accurately detecting J-Peaks. This research uses advanced signal processing and deep learning techniques to overcome these limitations. Our approach integrates accelerometers for long-term BCG data collection during sleep, applying Discrete Wavelet Transforms (DWT) and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) for feature extraction. The Bi-LSTM model, leveraging these features, enhances heartbeat detection, offering improved reliability over traditional methods. The study's findings indicate that the combined use of DWT, EEMD, and Bi-LSTM for J-Peak detection in BCG signals is effective, with potential applications in unobtrusive long-term cardiovascular monitoring. Our results suggest that this methodology could contribute to HRV monitoring, particularly in home settings, enhancing patient comfort and compliance.
Spatial modulation (SM) is a low-complexity multiple-input/multiple-output transmission technique that combines index modulation and quadrature amplitude modulation for wireless communications. In this work, we consider the problem of link adaption for generalized spatial modulation (GSM) systems that use multiple active transmit antennas simultaneously. Link adaption algorithms require a real-time estimation of the link quality of the time-variant communication channels, e.g., by means of estimating the mutual information. However, determining the mutual information of SM is challenging because no closed-form expressions have been found so far. Recently, multilayer feedforward neural networks were applied to compute the achievable rate of an index modulation link. However, only a small SM system with two transmit and two receive antennas was considered. In this work, we consider a similar approach but investigate larger GSM systems with multiple active antennas. We analyze the portions of mutual information related to antenna selection and the IQ modulation processes, which depend on the GSM variant and the signal constellation.
Non-volatile NAND flash memories store information as an electrical charge. Different read reference voltages are applied to read the data. However, the threshold voltage distributions vary due to aging effects like program erase cycling and data retention time. It is necessary to adapt the read reference voltages for different life-cycle conditions to minimize the error probability during readout. In the past, methods based on pilot data or high-resolution threshold voltage histograms were proposed to estimate the changes in voltage distributions. In this work, we propose a machine learning approach with neural networks to estimate the read reference voltages. The proposed method utilizes sparse histogram data for the threshold voltage distributions. For reading the information from triple-level cell (TLC) memories, several read reference voltages are applied in sequence. We consider two histogram resolutions. The simplest histogram consists of the zero-and-one ratios for the hard decision read operation, whereas a higher resolution is obtained by considering the quantization levels for soft-input decoding. This approach does not require pilot data for the voltage adaptation. Furthermore, only a few measurements of extreme points of the threshold voltage distributions are required as training data. Measurements with different conditions verify the proposed approach. The resulting neural networks perform well under other life-cycle conditions.
Reliability is a crucial aspect of non-volatile NAND flash memories, and it is essential to thoroughly analyze the channel to prevent errors and ensure accurate readout. Es-timating the read reference voltages (RRV s) is a significant challenge due to the multitude of physical effects involved. The question arises which features are useful and necessary for the RRV estimation. Various possible features require specialized hardware or specific readout techniques to be usable. In contrast we consider sparse histograms based on the decision thresholds for hard-input and soft-input decoding. These offer a distinct advantage as they are derived directly from the raw readout data without the need for decoding. This paper focuses on the information-theoretic study of different features, especially on the exploration of the mutual information (MI) between feature vector and RRV. In particular, we investigate the dependency of the MI on the resolution of the histograms. With respect to the RRV estimation, sparse histograms provide sufficient information for near-optimum estimation.
In 3D extended object tracking (EOT), well-established models exist for tracking the object extent using various shape priors. A single update, however, has to be performed for every measurement using these models leading to a high computational runtime for high-resolution sensors. In this paper, we address this problem by using various model-independent downsampling schemes based on distance heuristics and random sampling as pre-processing before the update. We investigate the methods in a simulated and real-world tracking scenario using two different measurement models with measurements gathered from a LiDAR sensor. We found that there is a huge potential for speeding up 3D EOT by dropping up to 95\% of the measurements in our investigated scenarios when using random sampling. Since random sampling, however, can also result in a subset that does not represent the total set very well, leading to a poor tracking performance, there is still a high demand for further research.
In the past years, algorithms for 3D shape tracking using radial functions in spherical coordinates represented with different methods have been proposed. However, we have seen that mainly measurements from the lateral surface of the target can be expected in a lot of dynamic scenarios and only few measurements from the top and bottom parts leading to an error-prone shape estimate in the top and bottom regions when using a representation in spherical coordinates. We, therefore, propose to represent the shape of the target using a radial function in cylindrical coordinates, as these only represent regions of the lateral surface, and no information from the top or bottom parts is needed. In this paper, we use a Fourier-Chebyshev double series for 3D shape representation since a mixture of Fourier and Chebyshev series is a suitable basis for expanding a radial function in cylindrical coordinates. We investigate the method in a simulated and real-world maritime scenario with a CAD model of the target boat as a reference. We have found that shape representation in cylindrical coordinates has decisive advantages compared to a shape representation in spherical coordinates and should preferably be used if no prior knowledge of the measurement distribution on the surface of the target is available.