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oday many scientific works are using deep learning algorithms and time series, which can detect physiological events of interest. In sleep medicine, this is particularly relevant in detecting sleep apnea, specifically in detecting obstructive sleep apnea events. Deep learning algorithms with different architectures are used to achieve decent results in accuracy, sensitivity, etc. Although there are models that can reliably determine apnea and hypopnea events, another essential aspect to consider is the explainability of these models, i.e., why a model makes a particular decision. Another critical factor is how these deep learning models determine how severe obstructive sleep apnea is in patients based on the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Deep learning models trained by two approaches for AHI determination are exposed in this work. Approaches vary depending on the data format the models are fed: full-time series and window-based time series.
Short-Term Density Forecasting of Low-Voltage Load using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows
(2023)
The transition to a fully renewable energy grid requires better forecasting of demand at the low-voltage level to increase efficiency and ensure reliable control. However, high fluctuations and increasing electrification cause huge forecast variability, not reflected in traditional point estimates. Probabilistic load forecasts take uncertainties into account and thus allow more informed decision-making for the planning and operation of low-carbon energy systems. We propose an approach for flexible conditional density forecasting of short-term load based on Bernstein polynomial normalizing flows, where a neural network controls the parameters of the flow. In an empirical study with 3639 smart meter customers, our density predictions for 24h-ahead load forecasting compare favorably against Gaussian and Gaussian mixture densities. Furthermore, they outperform a non-parametric approach based on the pinball loss, especially in low-data scenarios.