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Short-Term Density Forecasting of Low-Voltage Load using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows
(2023)
The transition to a fully renewable energy grid requires better forecasting of demand at the low-voltage level to increase efficiency and ensure reliable control. However, high fluctuations and increasing electrification cause huge forecast variability, not reflected in traditional point estimates. Probabilistic load forecasts take uncertainties into account and thus allow more informed decision-making for the planning and operation of low-carbon energy systems. We propose an approach for flexible conditional density forecasting of short-term load based on Bernstein polynomial normalizing flows, where a neural network controls the parameters of the flow. In an empirical study with 3639 smart meter customers, our density predictions for 24h-ahead load forecasting compare favorably against Gaussian and Gaussian mixture densities. Furthermore, they outperform a non-parametric approach based on the pinball loss, especially in low-data scenarios.
This study investigates the application of Force Sensing Resistor (FSR) sensors and machine learning algorithms for non-invasive body position monitoring during sleep. Although reliable, traditional methods like Polysomnography (PSG) are invasive and unsuited for extended home-based monitoring. Our approach utilizes FSR sensors placed beneath the mattress to detect body positions effectively. We employed machine learning techniques, specifically Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and XGBoost algorithms, to analyze the sensor data. The models were trained and tested using data from a controlled study with 15 subjects assuming various sleep positions. The performance of these models was evaluated based on accuracy and confusion matrices. The results indicate XGBoost as the most effective model for this application, followed by RF and KNN, offering promising avenues for home-based sleep monitoring systems.
Monitoring heart rate and breathing is essential in understanding the physiological processes for sleep analysis. Polysomnography (PSG) system have traditionally been used for sleep monitoring, but alternative methods can help to make sleep monitoring more portable in someone's home. This study conducted a series of experiments to investigate the use of pressure sensors placed under the bed as an alternative to PSG for monitoring heart rate and breathing during sleep. The following sets of experiments involved the addition of small rubber domes - transparent and black - that were glued to the pressure sensor. The resulting data were compared with the PSG system to determine the accuracy of the pressure sensor readings. The study found that the pressure sensor provided reliable data for extracting heart rate and respiration rate, with mean absolute errors (MAE) of 2.32 and 3.24 for respiration and heart rate, respectively. However, the addition of small rubber hemispheres did not significantly improve the accuracy of the readings, with MAEs of 2.3 bpm and 7.56 breaths per minute for respiration rate and heart rate, respectively. The findings of this study suggest that pressure sensors placed under the bed may serve as a viable alternative to traditional PSG systems for monitoring heart rate and breathing during sleep. These sensors provide a more comfortable and non-invasive method of sleep monitoring. However, the addition of small rubber domes did not significantly enhance the accuracy of the readings, indicating that it may not be a worthwhile addition to the pressure sensor system.
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are leading contributors to global mortality, necessitating advanced methods for vital sign monitoring. Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and Respiratory Rate, key indicators of cardiovascular health, are traditionally monitored via Electrocardiogram (ECG). However, ECG's obtrusiveness limits its practicality, prompting the exploration of Ballistocardiography (BCG) as a non-invasive alternative. BCG records the mechanical activity of the body with each heartbeat, offering a contactless method for HRV monitoring. Despite its benefits, BCG signals are susceptible to external interference and present a challenge in accurately detecting J-Peaks. This research uses advanced signal processing and deep learning techniques to overcome these limitations. Our approach integrates accelerometers for long-term BCG data collection during sleep, applying Discrete Wavelet Transforms (DWT) and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) for feature extraction. The Bi-LSTM model, leveraging these features, enhances heartbeat detection, offering improved reliability over traditional methods. The study's findings indicate that the combined use of DWT, EEMD, and Bi-LSTM for J-Peak detection in BCG signals is effective, with potential applications in unobtrusive long-term cardiovascular monitoring. Our results suggest that this methodology could contribute to HRV monitoring, particularly in home settings, enhancing patient comfort and compliance.
Spatial modulation (SM) is a low-complexity multiple-input/multiple-output transmission technique that combines index modulation and quadrature amplitude modulation for wireless communications. In this work, we consider the problem of link adaption for generalized spatial modulation (GSM) systems that use multiple active transmit antennas simultaneously. Link adaption algorithms require a real-time estimation of the link quality of the time-variant communication channels, e.g., by means of estimating the mutual information. However, determining the mutual information of SM is challenging because no closed-form expressions have been found so far. Recently, multilayer feedforward neural networks were applied to compute the achievable rate of an index modulation link. However, only a small SM system with two transmit and two receive antennas was considered. In this work, we consider a similar approach but investigate larger GSM systems with multiple active antennas. We analyze the portions of mutual information related to antenna selection and the IQ modulation processes, which depend on the GSM variant and the signal constellation.
Reliability is a crucial aspect of non-volatile NAND flash memories, and it is essential to thoroughly analyze the channel to prevent errors and ensure accurate readout. Es-timating the read reference voltages (RRV s) is a significant challenge due to the multitude of physical effects involved. The question arises which features are useful and necessary for the RRV estimation. Various possible features require specialized hardware or specific readout techniques to be usable. In contrast we consider sparse histograms based on the decision thresholds for hard-input and soft-input decoding. These offer a distinct advantage as they are derived directly from the raw readout data without the need for decoding. This paper focuses on the information-theoretic study of different features, especially on the exploration of the mutual information (MI) between feature vector and RRV. In particular, we investigate the dependency of the MI on the resolution of the histograms. With respect to the RRV estimation, sparse histograms provide sufficient information for near-optimum estimation.
Study design:
Retrospective, mono-centric cohort research study.
Objectives:
The purpose of this study is to validate a novel artificial intelligence (AI)-based algorithm against human-generated ground truth for radiographic parameters of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS).
Methods:
An AI-algorithm was developed that is capable of detecting anatomical structures of interest (clavicles, cervical, thoracic, lumbar spine and sacrum) and calculate essential radiographic parameters in AP spine X-rays fully automatically. The evaluated parameters included T1-tilt, clavicle angle (CA), coronal balance (CB), lumbar modifier, and Cobb angles in the proximal thoracic (C-PT), thoracic, and thoracolumbar regions. Measurements from 2 experienced physicians on 100 preoperative AP full spine X-rays of AIS patients were used as ground truth and to evaluate inter-rater and intra-rater reliability. The agreement between human raters and AI was compared by means of single measure Intra-class Correlation Coefficients (ICC; absolute agreement; .75 rated as excellent), mean error and additional statistical metrics.
Results:
The comparison between human raters resulted in excellent ICC values for intra- (range: .97-1) and inter-rater (.85-.99) reliability. The algorithm was able to determine all parameters in 100% of images with excellent ICC values (.78-.98). Consistently with the human raters, ICC values were typically smallest for C-PT (eg, rater 1A vs AI: .78, mean error: 4.7°) and largest for CB (.96, -.5 mm) as well as CA (.98, .2°).
Conclusions:
The AI-algorithm shows excellent reliability and agreement with human raters for coronal parameters in preoperative full spine images. The reliability and speed offered by the AI-algorithm could contribute to the efficient analysis of large datasets (eg, registry studies) and measurements in clinical practice.
Linear and nonlinear response functions (RF) are extracted for the climate system and the carbon cycle represented by the MPI-ESM and cGENIE models, respectively. Appropriately designed simulations are run for this purpose. Joining these RFs, we have a climate emulator with carbon emissions as the forcing and any desired observable quantity (provided the data is saved), such as the surface air temperature or precipitation, as the predictand. Like e.g. for atmospheric CO2 concentration, we also have RFs for the solar constant as a forcing — mimicking solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. We consider two application cases. 1. One is based on the Paris 2015 agreement, determining the necessary least amount of SRM geoengineering needed to keep the global mean surface air temperature below a certain threshold, e.g. 1.5 or 2 [oC], given a certain amount of carbon emission abatement (ABA) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) geoengineering. 2. The other application considers the conservation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). Using a zero-dimensional simplification of a complex ice sheet model, we determine (a) if we need SRM given some ABA and CDR, and, if possible, (b) the required least amount of SRM to avoid the collapse of the GrIS. Keeping temperatures below 2 [oC] even is hardly possible without sustained SRM (1.); however, the collapse of the GrIS can be avoided applying SRM even for moderate levels of CDR and ABA, an overshoot being affordable (2.).
As one of the most important branches of the industry in Germany and
the European Union, the mechanical and plant engineering sector is confronted with fundamental changes due to ever shorter innovation cycles and increased competitive pressure. This makes it even more important to increase the level of service components in business models with a low service level, which are still frequently found in SMEs. This paper is dedicated to the changes that the individual components of a business model have experienced and will experience. Special attention is paid to economic sustainability, since service business models can also positively influence the long-term nature of a business. Seven interviews conducted with relevant companies serve as the empirical basis of this paper. The analysed effects of smart services and active customer integration are structured and summarized within the three pillars of every business model (value proposition, the value creation architecture and the revenue mechanic).