Open Access

Wer schon einmal dicht gedrängt vor der Konzertbühne stand kann sich die aussichtslose Lage, wenn die Stimmung kippt und Panik aufkommt, gut vorstellen. Es ist sehr wichtig, Räume und Events, die zeitweise von sehr vielen Menschen aufgesucht werden, so zu gestalten und zu planen, dass maximale Sicherheit gewährleistet ist. Damit eine öffentliche Veranstaltung reibungslos verläuft ist eine gründliche Planung, also ein qualitativ hochwertiges Crowd Management unabdingbar.

Interpretability and uncertainty modeling are important key factors for medical applications. Moreover, data in medicine are often available as a combination of unstructured data like images and structured predictors like patient’s metadata. While deep learning models are state-of-the-art for image classification, the models are often referred to as ’black-box’, caused by the lack of interpretability. Moreover, DL models are often yielding point predictions and are too confident about the parameter estimation and outcome predictions. On the other side with statistical regression models, it is possible to obtain interpretable predictor effects and capture parameter and model uncertainty based on the Bayesian approach. In this thesis, a publicly available melanoma dataset, consisting of skin lesions and patient’s age, is used to predict the melanoma types by using a semi-structured model, while interpretable components and model uncertainty is quantified. For Bayesian models, transformation model-based variational inference (TM-VI) method is used to determine the posterior distribution of the parameter. Several model constellations consisting of patient’s age and/or skin lesion were implemented and evaluated. Predictive performance was shown to be best by using a combined model of image and patient’s age, while providing the interpretable posterior distribution of the regression coefficient is possible. In addition, integrating uncertainty in image and tabular parts results in larger variability of the outputs corresponding to high uncertainty of the single model components.

Forecasting is crucial for both system planning and operations in the energy sector. With increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, increasing fluctuations in the power generation need to be taken into account. Probabilistic load forecasting is a young, but emerging research topic focusing on the prediction of future uncertainties. However, the majority of publications so far focus on techniques like quantile regression, ensemble, or scenario-based methods, which generate discrete quantiles or sets of possible load curves. The conditioned probability distribution remains unknown and can only be estimated when the output is post-processed using a statistical method like kernel density estimation. Instead, the proposed probabilistic deep learning model uses a cascade of transformation functions, known as normalizing flow, to model the conditioned density function from a smart meter dataset containing electricity demand information for over 4,000 buildings in Ireland. Since the whole probability density function is tractable, the parameters of the model can be obtained by minimizing the negative loglikelihood through the state of the art gradient descent. This leads to the model with the best representation of the data distribution. Two different deep learning models have been compared, a simple three-layer fully connected neural network and a more advanced convolutional neural network for sequential data processing inspired by the WaveNet architecture. These models have been used to parametrize three different probabilistic models, a simple normal distribution, a Gaussian mixture model, and the normalizing flow model. The prediction horizon is set to one day with a resolution of 30 minutes, hence the models predict 48 conditioned probability distributions. The normalizing flow model outperforms the two other variants for both architectures and proves its ability to capture the complex structures and dependencies causing the variations in the data. Understanding the stochastic nature of the task in such detail makes the methodology applicable for other use cases apart from forecasting. It is shown how it can be used to detect anomalies in the power grid or generate synthetic scenarios for grid planning.

Probabilistic Deep Learning is a hands-on guide to the principles that support neural networks. Learn to improve network performance with the right distribution for different data types, and discover Bayesian variants that can state their own uncertainty to increase accuracy. This book provides easy-to-apply code and uses popular frameworks to keep you focused on practical applications.

Mapping of tree seedlings is useful for tasks ranging from monitoring natural succession and regeneration to effective silvicultural management. Development of methods that are both accurate and cost-effective is especially important considering the dramatic increase in tree planting that is required globally to mitigate the impacts of climate change. The combination of high-resolution imagery from unmanned aerial vehicles and object detection by convolutional neural networks (CNNs) is one promising approach. However, unbiased assessments of these models and methods to integrate them into geospatial workflows are lacking. In this study, we present a method for rapid, large-scale mapping of young conifer seedlings using CNNs applied to RGB orthomosaic imagery. Importantly, we provide an unbiased assessment of model performance by using two well-characterised trial sites together containing over 30,000 seedlings to assemble datasets with a high level of completeness. Our results showed CNN-based models trained on two sites detected seedlings with sensitivities of 99.5% and 98.8%. False positives due to tall weeds at one site and naturally regenerating seedlings of the same species led to slightly lower precision of 98.5% and 96.7%. A model trained on examples from both sites had 99.4% sensitivity and precision of 97%, showing applicability across sites. Additional testing showed that the CNN model was able to detect 68.7% of obscured seedlings missed during the initial annotation of the imagery but present in the field data. Finally, we demonstrate the potential to use a form of weakly supervised training and a tile-based processing chain to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of CNNs applied to large, high-resolution orthomosaics.

In document analysis the availability of ground truth data plays a crucial role for the success of a project. This is even more true at the rise of new deep learning methods which heavily rely on the availability of training data. But even for traditional, hand crafted algorithms that are not trained on data, reliable test data is important for the improvement and evaluation of the methods. Because ground truth acquisition is expensive and time consuming, semi-automatic methods are introduced which make use of suggestions coming from document analysis systems. The interaction between the human operator and the automatic analysis algorithms is the key to speed up the process while improving the quality of the data. The final confirmation of data may always be done by the human operator. This paper demonstrates a use case for acquisition of truth data in a mail processing system. It shows why a new, extended view on truth data is necessary in development and engineering of such systems. An overview over the tool and the data handling is given, the advantages in the workflow are shown, and consequences for the construction of analysis algorithms are discussed. It can be shown that the interplay between suggest algorithms and human operator leads to very fast truth data capturing. The surprising finding is the fact that if multiple suggest algorithms circularly depend on data, they are especially effective in terms of speed and accuracy.

Multi-Dimensional Connectionist Classification is amethod for weakly supervised training of Deep Neural Networksfor segmentation-free multi-line offline handwriting recognition.MDCC applies Conditional Random Fields as an alignmentfunction for this task. We discuss the structure and patterns ofhandwritten text that can be used for building a CRF. Since CRFsare cyclic graphical models, we have to resort to approximateinference when calculating the alignment of multi-line text duringtraining, here in the form of Loopy Belief Propagation. This workconcludes with experimental results for transcribing small multi-line samples from the IAM Offline Handwriting DB which showthat MDCC is a competitive methodology.

Knot placement for curve approximation is a well known and yet open problem in geometric modeling. Selecting knot values that yield good approximations is a challenging task, based largely on heuristics and user experience. More advanced approaches range from parametric averaging to genetic algorithms. In this paper, we propose to use Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to determine suitable knot vectors for B-spline curve approximation. The SVMs are trained to identify locations in a sequential point cloud where knot placement will improve the approximation error. After the training phase, the SVM can assign, to each point set location, a so-called score. This score is based on geometric and differential geometric features of points. It measures the quality of each location to be used as knots in the subsequent approximation. From these scores, the final knot vector can be constructed exploring the topography of the score-vector without the need for iteration or optimization in the approximation process. Knot vectors computed with our approach outperform state of the art methods and yield tighter approximations.

In this paper we present a method using deep learning to compute parametrizations for B-spline curve approximation. Existing methods consider the computation of parametric values and a knot vector as separate problems. We propose to train interdependent deep neural networks to predict parametric values and knots. We show that it is possible to include B-spline curve approximation directly into the neural network architecture. The resulting parametrizations yield tight approximations and are able to outperform state-of-the-art methods.

Deep learning is a field of machine learning that has been the focus of active research and successful applications in recent years. Offline handwriting recognition is one of the research fields and applications were deep neural networks have shown high accuracy. Deep learning models and their training pipeline show a large amount of hyper-parameters in their data selection, transformation, network topology and training process that are sometimes interdependent. This increases the overall difficulty and time necessary for building and training a model for a specific data set and task at hand. This work proposes a novel visualization-assisted workflow that guides the model developer through the hyper-parameter search in order to identify relevant parameters and modify them in a meaningful way. This decreases the overall time necessary for building and training a model. The contributions of this work are a workflow for hyper-parameter search in offline handwriting recognition and a heat map based visualization technique for deep neural networks in multi-line offline handwriting recognition. This work applies to offline handwriting recognition, but the general workflow can possibly be adapted to other tasks as well.

Simon Grimm examines new multi-microphone signal processing strategies that aim to achieve noise reduction and dereverberation. Therefore, narrow-band signal enhancement approaches are combined with broad-band processing in terms of directivity based beamforming. Previously introduced formulations of the multichannel Wiener filter rely on the second order statistics of the speech and noise signals. The author analyses how additional knowledge about the location of a speaker as well as the microphone arrangement can be used to achieve further noise reduction and dereverberation.